164 WEATHER ALMANACS. 



) 164 



Prediction fulfilled Jan. 7, 8 12, 13, 19, 20, 26, 27, 28 ; Feb. 1, 6, 9, 10, 

 13. Number of days, 14. 



Prediction not fulfilled Jan. 1, 2, 3, 9, 10, 11, 15, 16, 17, 18, 24, 25, 30, 

 31 ; Feb. 3, 8, 12, 14, 16, 17. Number of days, 20. 



No prediction made Jan. 4, 5, 6, 14, 21, 22, 23, 29; Feb. 2, 4, 5, 7, 11, 

 15. Number of days, 14. 



? Thus it appears that, of forty-eight days, the weather corresponded with the 

 $ prediction on fourteen ; it did not correspond with it on twenty ; and on the 

 ^ fourteen remaining days no prediction was made. 



) Now, we will ask, if any person of common observation acquainted with the 

 f climate of the country, were to annex to each of the first forty-eight succes- 



> sive days of the year at hazard, the characters of weather generally found to 

 ^ prevail at that season, whether he would not, according to all probability, be 



> right in a greater number of cases than fourteen in forty-eight, that is, one case 

 ' in three and a half? 



The predictions of the Weather Almanac, then, fail in seventeen cases 

 ) out of twenty-four! yet this is the production which the public bought, at a 



> high price, by the hundred thousand ! This is the production for which the 

 / demand was so urgent, and for which the public impatience was so irrepressi- 

 ) ble, that the shop of the bookseller, like those of bakers in a famine, was 

 ? obliged to be protected by the police, so violent was the demand of the thou- 

 ) sands who flocked to obtain it ! 



J By reference to the above table it will be seen, that there is no case in which 

 i the predictions have been fulfilled, even for three successive days, except from 

 ' the 26th to the 28th of January inclusive. Even in that case, the prediction 

 ) for the 26th agrees but imperfectly with the event; the prediction being fair, 

 without mention of wind or frost, while the Meteorological Journal says over- 

 cast ; brisk wind the whole day ; sharp frost. Much of the attention this pub- 

 lication received has been ascribed to the supposed fulfilment of the pre- 

 diction for the 20th of January, which is marked in the Weather Almanac as 

 the lowest winter temperature. This was a fortuitous coincidence, such as 

 ) happens frequently in other cases, as in the fulfilment of dreams, &c. We 

 , shall not insist here on the fact, that the 20th was not the day of the greatest 

 ) cold by the diary of the Royal Society, since the thermometer fell a little lower 

 I on the 16th, because we think it really unimportant.* 



; But it may be said, that, although the prediction has failed as to the exact 

 j time at which the several changes took place, yet, in the main, the changes 



> predicted did take place, and that the prediction " followed the sinuosities of 

 I the weather." 



Let us, then, see how far the predictions in the Weather Almanac will bear 



) a comparison with the actual succession of changes. 



i 



' Actual succession of changes. Succession of changes predicted. 



Number of days. Number of days. 



6 Mild and warm. 3 Frost. 



14 Frost. 3 Changeable. 



3 Thaw. 7 Frost. 



4 Frost. 1 Changeable. 

 4 Thaw. 6 Frost. 



6 Frost. 3 Changeable. 



3 Thaw. 2 Rain. 



The thermometer at the Horticultural Society is said to have been four degrees below zero on ( 

 tbe night of the 19th and 20th. This is BO much at variance with the journal of the Koy:il fck-ri. iv ; 

 that \V3 doubt the accuracy of the observation. 



