378 THE MOON AND THE WEATHER. 



through a distance of a few hundred yards, he may so place himself that the 

 vapor which obscures the upper horn in one position, will obscure the middle 

 in another, and the lower horn in the third. What then becomes of the pre- 

 diction ? Are we to infer that the same little portion of vapor suspended in ) 

 the air will produce rain at three different times in the month, at three places 

 situated a short distance asunder ? 



The truth is, that the ancient prognostics, whether derived from the moon, 

 from the sun, or from the stars, were, in the first instance, used legitimately as 

 mere indications of the state of the atmosphere by persons too simple-minded 

 and uneducated to trouble themselves much with the philosophy of cause and 

 effect ; but when these appearances came into the hands of philosophers, they 

 were at once elevated to the rank of physical causes, and their dominion ex- 

 tended in proportion to the dignity and importance thus conferred upon them. 

 Such notions were in keeping with a philosophy which made the moon the 

 boundary between corruption, change, and passiveness, on the one hand, and 

 the active powers of nature on the other. " Thus," says Horsley, " the uncer- 

 tain conclusions of an ill-conducted analogy, and false metaphysics, were mix- 

 ed with a few simple precepts, derived from observation, which probably made 

 the whole of the science of the prognostication in its earliest and purest state." 



Although from age to age, the particular circumstances and appearances 

 connected with the moon, by which the atmospheric vicissitudes were prog- 

 nosticated, were changed, still the faith of mankind in general in her influence 

 on the weather has never been shaken ; and even the present day, when 

 knowledge is so widely diffused, and physical science brought, as it were, to 

 the doors of all who have the slightest pretension to education, this belief is 

 almost universal. Many, it is true, may discard predictions which affect to 

 define, from day to day, the state of the weather. There are few, however, 

 who do not. look for a change of the weather with a change of the moon. It is 

 a belief nearly universal, that the epochs of a new and full moon are in the 

 great majority of instances attended by a change of weather, and that the quar- 

 ters, though not so certain, are still epochs when a change may be probably ex- 

 pected. Those who have least faith in the meteorological influence of the moon, 

 extend their belief thus far. 



There are two ways in which this question may be considered. It may be 

 asked whether, by the known principles of physics, the moon can have any, 

 and if any, what influence on our atmosphere 1 And whether that influence be 

 such as would cause a change of weather at the epochs of the principal pha- 

 ses ? Or, on the other hand, we may limit the inquiry to the m-are matter of 

 fact, and ask whether, by immediate observation, it has been found that the 

 epochs of the chief lunar phases have been, in the majority of instances, at- 

 tended by changes of weather ? or, to put the question more generally, wheth- 

 er any periodicity of atmospheric phenomena is actually observed to correspond 

 with the moon's phases. 



It would seem at first view that neither of these inquiries could be attended 

 with any doubt or difficulty ; yet the case is quite otherwise. The former, in- 

 volving as it does the whole theory of the moon's attraction on our atmosphere, < 

 modified by a multitude of disturbing causes, is a physical problem as difficult i 

 and complicated as could well be propounded. Indeed, it is one, taken in its 

 most comprehensive form, which does not admit of solution in the present 

 state of physical science. The latter being merely a question of fact and ob- 

 servation, is not attended, properly speaking, with ultimate difficulty, but it is 

 one which would require a course of observation carefully and accurately con- 

 duct-ad, continued for a series of years. Such observations when skilfully ex- 

 amined and discussed, would furnish grounds for safe and certain conclusion. 



