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But let us dismiss the theoretical view of the question, and inquire as to the 

 facts. Has it been found, as a matter of fact, that the epochs which mark the 

 principal phases of the moon have been, in the majority of cases, attended with 

 a change of weather? Before this question can satisfactorily be answered, it 

 will be indispensable that the meaning of the phrase, change "of weather, be dis- 

 tinctly understood. An observer who is predisposed to a belief in the influ- 

 ence of the lunar phases, will consider himself warranted in classing as a 

 change of weather, every transition from a calm to a wind, whether feeble or 

 forcible every change from a clear and serene firmament to one ever so little 

 clouded from a firmament a little clouded to one quite covered over. He 

 will consider the change from a day absolutely free from rain to one in which 

 a few drops may chance to fall, as well entitled to be recorded as a change of 

 weather as if the transition had been from a day absolutely fair to one of in- 

 cessant rain. On the other hand, a disbeliever in the lunar influences will 

 class all very slight changes as settled weather, and will only register as chan- 

 ges those of a very decisive character. These are difficulties hard to remove, 

 but unless they be removed how is it possible to compare together, with any 

 probability of arriving at the truth, the records of different observers ? What 

 value or importance are we to attach to the results of any such observations, 

 unless the prejudices of the observer are admitted into our estimate ? 



Toaldo has given the result of a comparison of observations continued for 

 forty-five years at Padua, in which changes of weather are recorded in juxta- 

 position with the lunar phases. Without detailing the particulars of these 

 calculations, we may state at once the following results of them. He found 

 that for every seven new moons the weather changed at six and was settled only 

 at one ; for every six full moons the weather changed at five and was settled 

 at one ; for every three epochs of the quarters there were two changes of 

 weather. 



He also examined the state of the weather in reference to the moon's dis- 

 tance from the earth, which is subject to some variation. The position 

 of the moon when most distant from the earth is called apogee, and her posi- 

 tion when nearest is called perigee. He found that of every six passages of 

 the moon through pe.rigee there were five changes of weather ; and of every five 

 through apogee there were four changes of weather. It is clear that if those 

 results would bear the test of rigid examination, they would be decisive in fa- 

 vor of the popular notion of the influence of the lunar phases. But let us see 

 in what manner Toaldo conducted his inquiry. 



He was himself an avowed believer in the lunar influence, not merely upon 

 the atmosphere, but even on the state of organized matter. In his memoir he 

 has not informed us what atmospherical changes he has taken as changes 

 of weather ; and it is fair to presume that the bias of his mind would lead him 

 to class the slightest vicissitudes under this head. But, further, Toaldo, in 

 recording the changes of weather coinciding with the epochs of the phases, 

 did not confine himself to changes which took place upon the particular day 

 of the phase. On the pretext that time must be allowed for the physi- 

 cal cause to produce its effect, he took the results- of several days. At the 

 new and full moon he included in his enumeration all changes which took 

 place two or three days before or two or three days after the day of new or 

 full moon ; while for the quarters he only included the day preceding and the 

 day following the phases ; and for epochs not coincident with the innar pha- 

 ses he only counted the changes of weather which took place on the particular 

 day in question. 



It appears, then, that by the changes coinciding with a new and full moon 

 recorded by Toaldo are understood any changes occurring within the space of 



