A RESUME OF THE 1930 OUTLOOK 

 FOR BEEF CATTLE 



The high phase of the cycle of beef cattle prices which has prevailed since 

 the latter part of 1927 is expected to continue through 1930, but prices for all 

 grades through the entire year of 1930 may be somewhat lower than those of 

 1929, according to the beef outlook report issued by the U. S. Department of 

 Agriculture early this year. 



Slaughter in 1930 will probably be about the same as in 1929 but demand 

 in view of general business conditions is expected to be slightly less. 



Total inspected slaughter of cattle in 1929 was 8,324,000 head or about 2 per 

 cent less than in 1928, and slaughter of calves was 4,489,000 head or about 4 per 

 cent smaller. The 1929 decrease in slaughter was in cows, heifers and calves, 

 steer slaughter being larger than in 1928. The decrease in calf slaughter was 

 largely in beef type calves. 



BEEF CATTLE NUMBERS BEGIN TO SHOW INCREASE 



Total cattle numbers on farms in the United States on January 1, 1930, was 

 57,967,000. This was about 1,500,000 head or 2.7 per cent more than on January 

 1, 1929, and 2,291,000 more than in 1928, which was the low point in cattle 

 numbers that accompanied the high point in the price cycle. The upward trend in 

 cattle numbers promises to proceed at a moderate rate for the next year or 

 two and may not be reflected in materially increased slaughter until the latter 

 part of 1931. The slaughter for 1929 indicated that calves of beef type rather 

 than steers were being held back to increase numbers, or, in other words, breeding 

 stock was being increased. 



Cattlemen who contemplate an expansion of their operations face the pros- 

 pect that cattle numbers will be increased generally over the period of several 

 years with a consequent lowering of prices. This increase in cattle numbers and 

 attendant increase in slaughter may be modified somewhat by a normal expansion 

 of domestic demand caused by growth of population, but it seems likely that the 

 present high level of cattle prices will induce the usual expansion of the industry, 

 leading within the next six or seven years to an over-production and a period of 

 low prices and subsequent liquidation. 



The immediate outlook for beef cattle is not discouraging to Montana pro- 

 ducers. Market supplies of fed cattle during the first half of 1930 are expected 

 to be about the same as in 1929. If there is any general move on part of dairy- 

 men to cull their herds more closely than usual, market supplies of slaughter 

 cattle other than fed stock during that period will be larger than in 1929. 



During the second half of 1930, supplies of fed cattle will be determined to a 

 large extent upon trend of cattle prices during the first four or five months of 

 the year and by the trend of corn prices. The supply for the summer and fall 

 of 1930 will probably include a larger proportion of light cattle than in 1929. 

 Market supplies of grass fat cattle and dairy cattle during the last six months 

 of 1930 will probably be no larger than in 1929, with slaughter of such cattle 

 compared with 1929,* depending upon the demand for stockers and feeders. Calf 

 slaughter during the last half of 1930 will probably be smaller than in 1929. 



The general average of prices in 1930 is likely to be only slightly lower 

 than in 1929. Prices of better grades of fed cattle will probably follow their 

 usual seasonal advance, although the high point of this advance may be reached 

 later than in 1929. Prices of lower grade slaughter cattle, which will take a 

 seasonal downward turn during the second half of 1930, are not apt to reach 

 lower averages than in 1929. 



