of the 1927 lamb crop and attitude of breeders with respect to holding back 

 ewe lambs. If an average percentage of lambing occurs in 1927 and fewer ewe 

 lambs are held back, as would appear likely from present indications, market 

 supplies of the second half of 1927 may be somewhat larger than during this 

 period in 1926. 



CYCLES OF THE SHEEP INDUSTRY 



The history of the sheep industry is made up of periods of prosperity fol- 

 lowed by periods of extreme depression. War has always played a prominent 

 part in these cycles by creating an abnormal demand for wool to which sheep- 

 men have always responded to the limit of their resources. His profits in war 

 times have been followed by losses when wars terminated. No instance re- 

 corded in recent centuries has not found the sheep industry at the conclusion of 

 a war vastly over-expanded compared with the peace time need. Aggravating 

 this situation there is always an accumulation in war times of world stocks of 

 both raw and manufactured wools. 



FACTORS AFFECTING PRICE CHANGES 



The wool grower is affected by peace time factors which operate to change 

 prices of sheep and lambs and wool setting up short annual variations with 

 consequent expansion and contraction of the sheep industry. These factors con- 

 sidered under two heads, sheep and lamb prices, and wool prices may be sum- 

 marized as follows: 



MARKET PRICES OF SHEEP AND LAMBS 



Market supplies, consumptive demand, grade or quality of the animal and 

 the price of wool are the principal factors determining the price of sheep and 

 lambs. 



Supplies of sheep and lambs at market centers vary widely from year to 

 year and with the season of the year. An eighth of the annual receipts arrive 

 in two months September and October, one tenth in August and November and 

 only about one fifteenth in the other eight months. Under war conditions dur- 

 ing the period 1915 to 1923 there has been as high as 48 per cent variation in 

 yearly receipts from the lowest to the highest year in this period. Between 

 1926 and 1925 receipts there was a variation of 8 per cent. 



Consumption likewise varies from year to year- Between 1907 and 1923 

 per capita consumption ranged from 4.6 pounds in 1917 to 8.2 pounds in 1912, 

 an extreme variation of 3.6 pounds or 74 per cent of the 1917 consumption. 

 Since the American sheep producer is dependent upon a domestic consumption 

 market such a variation is an important consideration. Although less in num- 

 ber of pounds per year compared with other meats, the variation in per capita 

 consumption of lamb and mutton is relatively greater. 



Grades of sheep and lambs for slaughter are determined by quality, con- 

 formation and finish for any given lot. Lambs, accordingly are graded as prime, 

 choice, good, medium, common and cull and inferior in order named; wethers, 

 prime to cull, and ewes, choice to canner. Variations in prices quoted on these 

 grades vary according to both grade, and demand for that grade. 



Wool prices is a third factor entering into determination of sheep and lamb 

 prices and is the source of more complications than any other single item. This 

 is due both to the wide variation in wool prices and the amount of wool car- 



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