A PERSPECTIVE OF THE CATTLE SITUATION 



While cyclical swings in the profitableness of the cattle industry are gener- 

 ally accepted phenomena, their existence is often overlooked and their possibilities 

 as guides to production on part of the range breeder are seldom appreciated by 

 many cattlemen who might be in a position to adjust their breeding power profit- 

 ably to these swings. 



Since records have been available the cattle industry has been subject to high 

 and low periods of production, prices and of purchasing power. The time between 

 periods of small supplies or between the peaks of high prices has averaged from 

 14 to 16 years. 



Following the low point in market supplies in 1914 the high prices and war 

 demands for beef greatly stimulated production and at the end of the war potential 

 production was at a peak. Since 1921 with slaughter exceeding production as a 

 result of low prices there has been a steady tendency to reduce herds. As early 

 as in 1925 the turn in the cycle had become apparent. In January 1926 this de- 

 partment made the following prediction: 



Montana cattlemen in common with those of the rest of the country have seen 

 cattle prices working through a slow cycle reaching comparatively low prices in 

 recent years. Cattle prices are now generally believed to be in the upward swing 

 of that cycle with the peak still several years in the future. Marketings of range 

 cattle in 1926 are expected to be materially less (than in 1925) but the number 

 of grain finished cattle may be larger, A marked decrease in steers, not grass 

 fed, and feeders, is indicated and calf slaughter in 1926 is expected to be less than 

 in 1925. 



Drought during 1926 forced more range cattle to market from the north- 

 western and north central states than was anticipated as a normal turn-off. The 

 only effect of this situation on the general outlook as was stated at the beginning 

 of the year was to hasten the time when short market supplies would have a 

 marked effect on price. This occurred during the last half of 1927 and carried 

 prices even higher than was expected. With the advance in cattle prices occurring 

 without a general increase in the whole price structure of other commodities, the 

 gain to cattlemen was substantial. In other words the higher cattle prices were 

 accompanied by an increase in purchasing power of the cattle dollar. 



The general situation now in the cattle industry is one wherein considerable 

 re-stocking will be necessary before any material increase in marketings can take 

 place. In fact sone further reduction in market supplies may result in the next 

 year or two as stock is held back for increasing breeding in response to the high 

 prices of the cycle. 



In the national outlook it was stated that beef cattle for slaughter and as 

 stockers and feeders seeemed reasonably certain to meet a market in 1928 that 

 will average higher than in 1927. In fact, depending upon the attitude of beef 

 producers with respect to restocking, the lowest market supplies of the present 

 cycle may be two years away, which, other things being equal, would mean that 

 the highest average prices may not be realized this side of 1929. 



As regards production it is to be expected that the trend of production will 

 be gradually upward for several years to come. As this situation becomes a factor 

 in market supplies, prices may be expected to gradually turn downwards. Look- 

 ing beyond the high point, therefore, of the present cycle, Montana cattlemen 

 should in their more distant plans, have in mind the recurring nature of such 

 situations in the cattle industry out of which they have just come. 



MONTANA DAIRY INDUSTRY IN 1927 



(By B. F. Thrailkill, Chief of the Dairy Division 

 Dept. Agriculture, Labor & Industry) 



The manufacture of butter in Montana has increased from 14,178,938 pounds 

 in the year 1924 to 16,534,892 pounds in 1927. The manufacture of cheese in 1924 

 was 934,065 pounds and in 1927 was 1,556,539 pounds, while the manufacture of 

 ice cream increased from 564,676 gallons in 1924 to 741,804 gallons in 1927. Con- 

 verted into the equivalent of whole milk sold by farmers for manufacture in the 

 state the year 1924 shows 356,157.900 pounds of whole milk sold for manufacture 

 against 419,956,000 pounds so sold and processed in 1927. 



