same period. This means that the increased lamb production during the period 

 1924 to 1927 has been primarily for expansion of total sheep numbers. 



Analysis of this situation shows that while sheepmen have added on an aver- 

 age of 1,130,000 to their total sheep numbers each year since 1924, they have 

 added only an average of 294,000 head to the yearly inspected slaughter during 

 this period. There is thus the likelihood that, if for any reason sheepmen should 

 reverse the recent trend of production, the slaughter market will be immediately 

 called upon to absorb a much larger total supply than the average of recent years. 

 In fact slaughter market will be obliged to absorb at least the average increment 

 to total sheep numbers that has been added each year since 1924 as soon as the 

 point is reached where the present expansion curve in total numbers flattens out. 



If the total number of sheep had remained stationary between Jan. 1, 1927 

 and Jan. 1, 1928 there would have been available for slaughter supply the differ- 

 ence between the two inventories minus the difference between the January num- 

 ber on feed both years or about 2,247,000 more sheep and lambs for slaughter 

 than were slaughtered during 1927. 



With this background we can consider the relatively large increase in sheep 

 numbers again on January 1, 1928 when they were 6.5 per cent larger than Jan. 

 1, 1927. Compared with 1924 they were 16.5 per cent larger whereas, on Jan. 1, 

 1927 they were but 9.1 per cent larger than the 1924 base year. 



The average annual increase from 1924 to 1928 was 1,540,000 whereas, the 

 average annual increase up to 1927 had been 1,130,000 head. 



It is on this trend of production that the national outlook report predicates 

 its statement that "lamb production in this country is tending upward and ap- 

 proaching the peak of the cycle" and that "the outlook for the next few years 

 indicates the need of considerable caution in regard to further expansion in pro- 

 duction of lambs." 



Montana is now in the second expansion period of her sheep industry. The 

 first expansion saw a rapid and substantial increase in total numbers of from less 

 than half a million head in 1880 to morel than six million head between 1900 and 

 1906. Numbers held fairly well until 1910 and the next decade witnessed a sharp, 

 steady decline until a low point of close to two million head in 1920. From 1920 

 to 1928 total numbers have increased to slightly over three million head. 



For the United States as a whole, the trend of sheep numbers was irregu- 

 larly upward from 1900 to 1909 and downward until the war expansion between 

 1915 and 1919. The low points during the whole period of 1900 to 1928 were in 

 1915 and 1922 with high points in 1909 and the present year 1928 and the high 

 point of the war period in 1919. 



Since 1900 the trend of average yearly lamb prices at Chicago have been 

 about $5.90 per 100 pounds in 1900 to $16.60 per hundred pounds in 1918, and by 

 1921 they reached a low point of less than $10.00 in the present cycle. 



It has been in response to improving prices from 1922 to 1925 that sheepmen 

 have greatly increased their total holdings, carrying their increase strongly 

 through 1926 and 1927 during which period prices have reacted somewhat from 

 the high 1925 point. 



Montana sheepmen in general have followed the main production trend of 

 sheepmen of the country and if a peak in the production cycle, now being ap- 

 proached generally, is to be attended as in the past by price re-adjustments, 

 Montana sheepmen should carefully consider the general situation in their pro- 

 duction plans during the next few years. 



SHEEP NUMBERS IN UNITED STATES 



Sheep have also been increasing in numbers over the whole United States 

 since 1922, but not at such a great rate as in Montana. Numbers in the United 

 States are seen in the accompanying table with Montana numbers alongside for 

 comparison. 



SHEEP AND LAMBS IN THE UNITED STATES AND MONTANA 

 NUMBERS ON FARMS JANUARY 1ST. 



(1920-1928) 



YEAR Montana United States 



1920 2,450,000 40.243,000 



1921 2,230.000 38,690.000 



1922 ^ 2,460,000 36,186,000 



1923 2,370,000 36,212,000 



1924 2,441,000 38,876,000 



1925 2.579,000 38,112,000 



1926 2,880,000 39,730.000 



1927 3,053.000 41,846,000 



1928 8,206.000 44,545,000 



— €0— 



