PROGRESS OF THE WORLD. 



5.1J 



has been favourable' received by the 

 Senate, and is, therefore, hkely to go 

 through. If it does, it will make the 

 South American Republics more bitter 

 than ever against Uncle Sam. 



Civil War in China. 



As forecasted in these pages last 

 month, civil war has broken out in 

 China. Victory is certain to rest at 

 first with Yuan-Shi-Kai. He has now 

 ample funds at command, can pay his 

 soldiers, and has already bribed the 

 fleet to abandon the side of the Revolt- 

 ing South with which its officers had at 

 ftrst thrown in their lot. Dr. Sun-Yat- 

 Sen appears to be the moving spirit in 

 the new revolution. An independent 

 Southern Republic may result. The 

 greatest danger, though, is that, owing 

 to this internal strife, China may find 

 it impossible to pay the interest on the 

 5-Power loan. A failure to do this 

 would mean that the five Powers who 

 guaranteed it would have to take 

 action. It is not impossible that pre- 

 cisely this contingency was kept in 

 view when the loan was negotiated. 

 Once a Power gets a foothold in China 

 she can seldom withdraw. For in- 

 stance. Great Britain leased Wei-hai- 

 wei in 1897 ; the tenancy was supposed 

 to terminate whenever the Rus.sians 



gave up Port Arthur. They were forced 

 to do so some time ago, but we seem 

 still to be holdhig Wei-hai-wei! 



The Future of the Pacific. 



We have come to regard the possi- 

 bility of a Japanese invasion of Aus- 

 tralia as a highly probable thing. It 

 is this fear which is primarily respon- 

 sible for our demand for a local navy, 

 and it is also responsible for the intro- 

 duction of the thin end of the wedge of 

 conscription here. Whether such a 

 force of warships and such a citizens' 

 army would be of any avail if Japan 

 really wanted to come to Australia, 

 denounced her treaty with England, 

 and secured command of the sea, is an- 

 other matter altogether. Looking at 

 the question from the point of view of 

 Imperial statesmen at home the present 

 treaty with Japan protects Australia 

 far more thoroughly than ships and 

 men quartered here. If the treaty 

 ceases to operate, Japan would be a 

 potential enemy, and a redistribution 

 of the Imperial fleet would secure us 

 against any fear of a Japanese on- 

 slaught. It is convenient to regard a 

 Japanese invasion as a real danger, 

 but actually the chance of such an at- 

 tack is so remote as to be almost out- 

 side the realm of probability. 



Photo.'] THE FIRST HOXE-MADE AEROPLANE TO FLY IN NEW ZEALAND. {ShanUJand. 



Built by D. P. Fisher, and flown by R. H. White, both of Wellington. 



