THE IBKIGATION AGE. 



425 



WHAT THE PROSPECTIVE SETTLER SHOULD KNOW 



Some Excellent Advice and Information By Thomas Forsyth Hunt and Other Members of the Staff of the College of 



Agriculture of the University of California 



AN agent 

 who is 

 seeking to sell 

 land holds 

 that he may, 

 with pro- 

 priety, state 

 the maximum 

 yield which 

 may be ex- 

 pected from a 

 given crop on 

 the land which 

 he is offering 

 for sale. It 

 is difficult to 

 deny that he 

 has such right. 

 It is worth 

 while, there- 

 fore, to con- 

 sider whether 

 there is any 

 r e 1 a tionship 

 between 

 maximum yields and yields that may be expected 

 in the ordinary run of business. 



The question now arises, how may one esti- 

 mate the yield which may be used safely as a busi- 

 ness guide? If only an average yield of these dif- 

 ferent crops is obtained, the raiser secures a very 

 modest daily wage plus a small interest on the in- 

 vestment. A man who can produce only average 

 yields of crops will, generally speaking, do better 

 in some other business, or by working for a daily 

 wage for others. An intelligent, thrifty, careful 

 farmer may properly hope to secure twice the aver- 

 age return that is customary under the conditions 

 of his soil and climate, but even this is not a safe 

 estimate on which to do business. Very broadly 

 speaking necessarily there must be many excep- 

 tions a competent farmer may expect to secure an 

 increase of 50 per cent over average yields. To 

 illustrate, the following table may be prepared 

 showing what may be expected in California under 

 average conditions of soil and climate : 



Wheat Barley 



Average yield 13 25 



A safe estimate for business purposes. 20 40 



A good yield which competent men 



may hope to obtain 25 50 



Yield not infrequently obtained under 



favorable conditions 40 



Possible but extraordinary yields 50 100 



These figures are merely illustrative, but it is 

 probable that they represent a somewhat general 

 law : namely, first, that it is possible to secure, 

 under favorable conditions, a yield that is four 

 times that usually obtained ; and, second, that for 

 business purposes, it is not safe to count on secur- 



Some baby beef raised on silage Courtesy Santa Fe Railway. 



ing more than 

 two - fifths of 

 the maximum 

 yield. There 

 are many ex- 

 ceptions to the 

 rule because 

 of varying soil 

 and climatic 

 conditions. 



It is not 

 intended to as- 

 sert that larger 

 returns may 

 not be ob- 

 tained, but to 

 suggest that 

 if a profit can- 

 not be calcu- 

 1 a t e d upon 

 this basis, 

 then further 

 study of the 

 situ ation is 

 needed before 

 making a purchase. 



The chief purpose of this discussion is to en- 

 force the principle that the large yields which are 

 obtained under very favorable conditions are not 

 a true business guide. It is necessary to recognize 

 frankly that only a fraction of such possible yields 

 are obtained ordinarily in actual practice. The pur- 

 pose is not to try to state what yield may be ob- 

 tained under each given condition of soil and cli- 

 mate, but to give a sort of working basis for rea- 

 sonable estimation. Thus if in a given region on a 

 particular type of soil one determines that it has 

 been found possible to get a yield of thirteen tons 

 of alfalfa per acre, on the basis of two-fifths pre- 

 viously stated 5.2 tons of alfalfa would be a safe 

 estimate for business purposes. If, on the other 

 hand, eight tons were found to be an extraordinary 

 yield, then 3.2 tons are all that could be safely pre- 

 dicted. However, it must always be kept in mind 

 that the competent man may hope to secure better 

 yields. 



Persons will differ widely as to what is a satis- 

 factory income. Some arbitrary figure must be 

 assumed, however, as a basis of discussion. All 

 that can here be hoped is to show such relationship 

 as to enable one to forecast a condition that will be 

 satisfactory to himself. Let it be assumed, then, 

 that a gross income of $4,000 per year is desired. 

 The annual gross income from the chief farm crops 

 of the United States is about 16 per cent, or one- 

 sixth of the capital invested. Under these condi- 

 tions an investment of $24,000 would be required. 

 Only a modest wage and a small interest would be 

 earned. A satisfactory gross income, one perhaps 

 that competent men may reasonably expect to earn, 



