26 PART I. THE PROBLEM. 



the remark is made that all trains on the line in question are 

 late in arriving, or, more forcibly, that there is always some- 

 thing amiss with trains. A single act stamps a man as good 

 or bad, and an isolated transaction determines whether a 

 tradesman is a desirable person to have dealings with or not. 

 Similarly, manners, political parties, and religions other than 

 our own are freely condemned on the basis of one or a few in- 

 stances, whereas one or a few picked illustrations are presumed 

 to demonstrate the superiority of our manners, political party, and 

 religion. Likewise there is no argument so shallow or unsub- 

 stantial which is not often regarded by numbers of men as con- 

 clusive when it is, say, a matter of defending class interests or 

 inventing an excuse for declaring war. 1 



In the absence of a discriminating public standard of pro- 

 bability it is hazardous to pass judgment on the average man 

 for indulging in precipitate statements. After all, the Universe 

 is not a multiverse. To-day closely resembles yesterday, and 

 to-morrow will not differ much from to-day. The general facts 

 of nature do not sensibly vary during brief periods ; towns, parks, 

 streets, houses, remain virtually the same from week to week ; 

 the number and the appearance of the folk we encounter in 

 our district from day to day remain approximately alike; and 

 our acquaintances apparently possess a permanent character. 

 Moreover, largely because we are trained to ignore everything 

 which is not palpable, obvious, or usable, the marvellous 

 development of plants and animals from shapeless and dimi- 

 nutive zygotes into astonishingly varied forms ; the links which 

 closely connect the most diverse living types ; the world of 

 causes which is almost invariably the region of the microscopic 

 and ultra-microscopic; and objects relatively distant in space 

 and time, fall outside the focus of common apprehension and 

 interest. Nor does fortuitous experience teach a man much, 

 for an undisciplined and confused memory, multitudinous pre- 

 judices, and rambling cogitations re-reduce the complex to the 

 simple, and mask the deeper truths. The method of thought 

 whereby he ordinarily proceeds, the average man opines, is 

 applicable everywhere. Besides, because of the intricacy of 

 most problems, it is difficult to prove to him that he is 

 mistaken, and even if he be convicted of a defect in his 

 reasoning, he will readily discover specious explanations to 

 reassure himself. Thus, if a man of ill repute happens to be 

 drowned when swimming at the seaside, it is regarded by 

 many as a divine punishment; if a man of good repute is 

 drowned under analogous circumstances, the deity is said to 

 have need of him. If unemployment increases in the country, 



1 The World War, happily ended with the defeat of the principal aggressor, 

 painfully illustrates the last point. Austria's pretext for attacking Serbia, 

 Germany's for declaring war on Belgium, Russia, and France, and Bulgaria's 

 excuse for breaking with its neighbour, Serbia, are apt examples. 



