374 PART V. WORKING STAGE. 



course, not without a modicum of success, more especially 

 where the data are patent and admitted. If, then, guessing at 

 a generalisation has sometimes its reward, it is manifest that 

 deductive divination is much more likely to be crowned with 

 success, inasmuch as the generalisations or statements whereon 

 it is grounded, if the outcome of scientific labours, offer distinct 

 and reliable guidance. Yet both generalising and deductive 

 conjecturing represent a crude substitute for orderly scientific 

 procedure, and may be only rightfully employed where, for the 

 time being, the intricacies of the subject permit of no other 

 advance. Deductive procedure will, we believe, become im- 

 measurably more effective, when it is . guided by scientific 

 canons. 1 



Countless are the occasions when the most specious deductions prove 

 mistaken on examination. Here is a fascinating illustration: "A most inter- 

 esting and beautiful example of ... a rhythm dependent upon external 

 stimulation under normal conditions, but capable of becoming automatic 

 in the absence of the wonted stimulus, or its delayed arrival beyond the 

 accustomed time, is found in the case of the phosphorescent organisms 

 so abundant in our seas especially in the autumn months. 



"It might be supposed at first thought that these phosphorescent or- 

 ganisms are not observed to emit light during the day because of the 

 presence of sunlight, and that, if taken into a dark room, such as is used 

 for photographic purposes, they would be found to phosphoresce just as 

 brilliantly as at night. Such is, however, not the case; not a spark can 

 be elicited from them even by vigorous shaking, so long as there is 

 daylight in the outer world. But if one stands by and watches in the 

 dark room, as twilight is falling outside, although the organisms have not 

 been exposed to light all day, one observes the little lamps light up and 

 flash out one by one like coruscating diamonds in the darkness, till the 

 whole dish is studded with flashing and disappearing light, a glorious 

 sight in the darkness and stillness. 



" At daybreak, the series of changes are the reverse of those witnessed 

 at dusk; if the dish containing the organisms be observed in the dark 

 room about an hour before sunrise, it will be seen that at first the organ- 

 isms are still flashing out brilliantly, but about half an hour before sun- 

 rise, the number of flashes begins to diminish rapidly; at sunrise there 

 are hardly any showing, and half an hour later even violent stirring 

 will not produce a single sparkle. The most remarkable thing of all is 

 that this regular daily phasic action is kept up for as long as fourteen 

 days, by which time the organisms have perished in captivity. Regularly 

 every evening the lights come out, and as regularly every morning they 

 are extinguished, although all the intervening time the tiny living crea- 

 tures have been kept in darkness. 



"A similar diurnal rhythm has been observed for shorter periods in 

 plant leaves which alter their position at day and night, when the plants 

 have been kept in darkness." (Benjamin Moore, op.cit., pp.250 252.) 



198. Hypothetical deductions are common in scientific 

 enquiries, and usually there is nothing preternatural about them. 

 We shall supply a few examples. Einstein states: "We know 



1 An extreme example of reliance on deduction, with almost complete 

 exclusion of induction, is to be found in Malebranche's De la recherche de 

 la vfrite, more especially in the latter portion of the Second Part of "De 

 la methode". 



