Post hoc ergo propter hoc 135 



obliged to wage war. This reasoning holds true, 

 of course, only from the point of view of all the 

 nations, but the interdependence of thought is so 

 great in modern life that when the truth is realized 

 in one part of the world, that war is economically, 

 socially, and morally futile, the new ideas will 

 rapidly spread through the other parts of the 

 world and the greatest obstacle in the way of world 

 federation will be removed. We have seen in 

 Chapter I that the philosophy of force is an 

 international philosophy. The history of all in- 

 tellectual advance teaches us that the disin- 

 tegration of this philosophy will also be an 

 international process. 



The sophistry post hoc ergo propter hoc is one 

 of the crudest fallacies of the philosophy of force. 

 Whenever a good thing takes place after a war 

 it is immediately placed to the credit of this war. 

 Thus it is often argued that since the Civil War 

 in America was followed by a great burst of 

 industrial activity, the building of the great 

 transcontinental railroads, and other proofs of 

 the vital energy of the people of the North, there- 

 fore all this creative activity was caused by the 

 Civil War. But when evil effects follow the war, 

 as in the economic stagnation of the South in the 

 same period, the war is not held responsible. This 

 sophism is hardly worthy of scientific considera- 

 tion. In science a cause is something which is 

 invariably followed by the same effect. All stu- 

 dents of the social sciences know that the 



