Wrong Beliefs Make War Inevitable i8i 



tions which the power of its enemies has forced upon 

 it, when it is clear that the rival States must gradually 

 acquire from natural reasons a lead that cannot be 

 won back, when there are indications of an offensive 

 alliance of stronger enemies who only wait the favour- 

 able moment to strike — the moral duty of the State 

 towards its citizens is to begin the struggle while the 

 prospects of success and the political circumstances 

 are still tolerably favourable. When, on the other 

 hand, the hostile States are weakened or hampered 

 by affairs at home and abroad, but its own warlike 

 strength shows elements of superiority, it is impera- 

 tive to use the favourable circumstances to promote 

 its own political aims. The danger of a war may be 

 faced the more readily if there is good prospect that 

 great results may be obtained with comparatively 

 small sacrifices. ^ 



Substantially the same ideas are held by the 

 war parties in each of the Great Powers engaged 

 in the war. Thus Lord Roberts, in his famous 

 Manchester speech, reported in the Manchester 

 Guardian, October 31, 1912, has advocated that 

 England adopt the same policy: 



Germany strikes when Germany's hour has struck; 

 that is the time-honoured policy of her Foreign Office. 

 That was the policy relentlessly pursued by Bismarck 

 and Moltke in 1866 and 1870. It has been her policy 

 to the present hour. And, gentlemen, it is an excel- 



' Bernhardi, Germany and the Next War, in the chapter en- 

 titled, "The Duty to Make War," pp. 52-53. 



