THE CHEMICAL METHOD. 551 



application from a sinc;Io unanalyzctl instance, or arbitrarily rt'fer an 

 ertcct to some one anionic its aiiti'c«ukMils, witliont any process of flimi- 

 nation or comparison of instances. It is a rnle l)oth of justice and of good 

 sense to p^rapple not with tin- ahsurdi'st, but witii tliu most reasonable 

 form of a wrong opinion. We .shall su])pos»' our impiirer acquainted 

 with the true conditions of exiierimenlal inveslicration, and competent in 

 point of acquirements for realizing them, if lliey can be realized in any 

 case of the kind. He shall know as much of the facts of history as 

 mere erudition can teach — as much as can be proved Ijy testimony, 

 without the assistance of any'theory ; and if those mere facts, properly 

 collated, can fulfill the conditions of a real induction, he shall be (juali- 

 lied for the task. 



Uut, that no such attempt can have the smallest chance; of success, 

 has been abundantly shown in the tenth chapter of the Third IJook.* 

 We there examined whether eflects which depend upon a complication 

 of causes, can be made the subjects of a true induction by observation 

 and experiment; and concluded, on the most convincing grounds, that 

 they caimot. Since, of all effects, none depend upon so great a com- 

 plication of causes as social phenomena, we might leave our case to 

 rest in safety upon that previous showing. But a logical princi|)le, as 

 yet so little familiar to the ordinary run of thinkei-s, re(|uires to be in- 

 sisted upon more than once, in order to make the due impression ; and 

 the present being the case which of all others exemplifies it the nn>st 

 strongly, there will be advantage in restating the grounds of the general 

 maxim, as applied to the specialities of the class of inquiries now under 

 consideration. 



§ 2. The first difficulty which meets us in the attempt to apply ex- 

 perimental methods for ascertaining the laws of social phenomena, is 

 that we are without the means of making artificial experiments. Even 

 if wo could contrive experiments at leisure, and try them without 

 limit, we should do so under immense disadvantages; both from the im- 

 possibility of ascertaining and taking note of all the facts of each case, 

 and because (those facts being in a perpetual state of change) before 

 sufhcient time had elapsed to ascertain the result of the experiment, 

 some material circumstances would always have ceased to be the same. 

 But it is unnecessary to consider the logical objections which would exist 

 to the conclusiveness of our experiments, since we palpably never 

 have the power of trying any. We can only watch those wliich nature 

 produces, or those which are produced for other rea.sons. We cannot 

 adapt our logical means to our wants, by varying the circumstances as 

 tlie exigencies of elimination may recjuire. If the spontaneous instances, 

 formed by contemporary cvetits and l)y the successions of phenomena 

 recorded in history, afford a suflicient variation of circumstances, an 

 inducticjn from specific experience is attainable ; otherwi.se not. The 

 question to be resolved is, therefore, wln-ther the requisites for induc- 

 tion respecting the causes of political effects or the properties of 

 political agents, are tr) be met with in history ? including under the 

 term, contemporary history. And in onler to give fixity to our con- 

 ceptions, it will be advisable to suppose this (piestion asked in n.'ferenco 

 to some special subject of political inquiry »jr controversy ; such as that 



• Supra, pp. 2yj-2(H. 



