PHYSICAL METHOD. 678 



the degree in which it would liave enablrd us to predict what has ac- 

 tually occurred. Before our tlieory of tlio influence of a particular 

 cause, in a given state of circumstances, can be trusted, we must he 

 able to explain and account for the existing state of all that j)orli(»n of 

 the social phenomena which that cause has a tendency to innuencr. 

 If, for instance, we would a]iply our speculations in political economy 

 to the prediction or guidance of the phenomena ot any country, wt; 

 must be able to exphiin all tlie mercantih:; or industrial i'acts of a ijcn- 

 eral character, appertaining to the pn\><ent state of tliat country : to point 

 out causes sufHcient to account for all of thorn, and prove, or show good 

 ground for supposing, that these causes did really exist. If we cannot 

 do this, it is a proof either that the facts which ouijht to bo taken into 

 account are not yet completely kiKiwn to us, or that ahhough we know 

 the facts, we are not masters of a suHiciently perfect theory to enable 

 us to assign their consequences. In cither case we are not, in the 

 present state of our knowledge, competent to draw conclusions, citlier 

 speculative or practical, for that country. In like manner, if we would 

 attempt to judge of the eflect which any political institution would 

 have, supposing that it could be introduced into any given country ; 

 we must be able to show that the existing state of the practical govern- 

 ment of that country, and of whatever else depends thereon, togetlier 

 ^vith the particular chaiacter and tendencies of the people, and their 

 state in respect to the various elements of social well-being, are such 

 as the institutions they have lived under, in conjunction witli the other 

 circumstances of their nature or of their position, were calculated to 

 produce. 



It is therefore well said by M. Comte, that in order to prove that 

 our science, and our knowledge of the particular case, render us com- 

 petent to predict the future, we must show that they would have ena- 

 bled us to predict the present and the past. If there be anjlhing 

 which we could not have predicted, this constitutes a residual phenom- 

 enon, requiring further study for the puq)Ose of explanation ; and we 

 must either search among the circumstances of tho particular case 

 until we find one which, on the principles of our existing theory, ac- 

 counts for the unexplained phenomenon, or we must turn back, and 

 seek the explanation by an extension and improvement of the theory 

 itself. 



