564 



SCIENTIFIC THOUGHT. 



tury, his ' Statistical Account of the British Empire/ 

 had hardly any similar work to refer to during the 

 whole of the eighteenth century. 



The exception just referred to was " The Tables of 

 Mortality," which date back to the middle of the six- 

 teenth century, and in a more regular form to 1603. 

 11. They were analysed by John Graunt, captain, in 1661, 



John Graunt 



y. i n a tract with the title 'Natural and Political Obser- 

 vations upon the Bills of Mortality.' l Of Graunt's 2 

 work, M. Maurice Block says that the difficulties of 

 preparing such a table at that time were so great 

 that it might wellnigh be considered a performance 

 of genius. The invention once made, improvement 



1 The tract was presented to the 

 Royal Society in 1662, and printed 

 by order of the latter in 1665, the 

 author becoming a fellow at the re- 

 quest of the king. V. John gives 

 a full account of the book, and as 

 much of the author as he could 

 collect from the scanty records 

 of him which exist (loc. cit., pp. 161- 

 178). He was born in 1620, was a 

 man of business, and latterly became 

 connected with the Gresham College 

 and with sundry matters pertaining 

 to the administration of the City. 

 He died in 1674. In 1676 a new, 

 sixth, edition of the tract was pub- 

 lished by Sir W. Petty, whom both 

 Halley and Evelyn erroneously 

 referred to as the author. 



2 ' Statistique,' p. 194. Siissmilch, 

 a century after Graunt, says that 

 the material for the determination 

 of the ' Divine Order ' existed in 

 the parish registers since the time 

 of the Reformation. "But who," he 

 exclaims, " made use of it for this 

 purpose before Graunt ? The dis- 

 covery was just as easy as that of 

 America, but the Columbus was 



lacking" (quoted by V. John, loc. 

 cit., p. 177). The author, however, 

 who suggested to Siissmilch the re- 

 searches which led to the celebrated 

 ' Divine Order,' was not John 

 Graunt, but Dr William Derham 

 (1657-1735), an eminent divine and 

 natural philosopher, who published 

 in 1713 his ' Physico-Theology ; or 

 a Demonstration of the Being and 

 Attributes of God from His Works 

 of Creation,' a book which ran 

 through six editions in ten years, 

 being translated into French and 

 several times into German. This 

 book contained, as Siissmilch him- 

 self says, besides numerous notes, a 

 collection of the observations of 

 other English authors on the lists 

 of births, deaths, and marriages. 

 On following up the clue given by 

 it he arrived ultimately at Graunt 

 and Petty, of whom the former 

 had, as he says, broken the ice, 

 whereas Petty had mainly dis- 

 cussed the influence of the changes 

 of population in politics (V. John, 

 ' Statistik,' p. 243). 



