45 1 ] ASPECTS OF THE PLEBISCITE 1 53 



Treaty, refused to recognize the possile existence of any 

 sentiment in favor of Germany. The plebiscite suggested 

 by the German reply to the first draft of the Treaty would 

 undoubtedly establish a majority in favor of either France, 

 Germany, or independence. But it also would establish a 

 dissenting minority favoring one or the other of the alterna- 

 tives to the decision of the majority. 



In an editorial on " Self-Determination," a New York 

 weekly^ discusses the analogous difficulties confronting the 

 application of the principle of self-determination in the three 

 Lithuanian provinces, Kovno, Vilna, and Suwalki. Accord- 

 ing to the Nation, the Lithuanian race constitutes 75 per 

 cent of the first, 18 per cent of the second, and 52 per cent 

 of the third of these provinces. " How is the plebiscite to 

 be taken?" the Nation asks. "For the three provinces 

 as a unit," it answers, " the Lithuanians, though in a 

 minority, might conceivably rally a majority for independ- 

 ence under the pull of historic traditions. If the provinces 

 vote separately, then Vilna, the heart of Lithuania, might 

 decide to stay with Russia, while Kovno would be certainly 

 independent and Suwalki probably so." Suwalki again, 

 offers another complication. Under Russian rule it formed 

 a part of Poland. Will then, to quote the Nation, " the new 

 independent Poland permit Suwalki to detach itself, or will 

 it insist on keeping the province in spite of the fact that the 

 Poles are less than 25 per cent of the population ? " In the 

 Prussian province of Posen the Polish population numbers 

 slightly over 60 per cent, in the province of West Prussia 

 the Poles number about 33 per cent. Can there be the 

 slightest hope that a decision based on a general plebiscite 

 taken in these two provinces as units would prove satisfac- 

 tory to the respective minorities? Let it be supposed plebi- 

 scites were taken locally and a racial division on local lines 

 were clearly established, would any practical statesnian 

 propose the annexation of non-contiguous districts to the 



2 The Nation, New York, Jan. 17, 1918. 



