FALLACIES OF OBSERVATION. 



507 



tinent to logic is — Granting the want 

 of complete competency in the d)- 

 server, on what point is that insuffi- 

 ciency on his part likely to lead him 

 wrong? or rather, what sorts of in- 

 stances, or of circumstances in any 

 given instance, are most likely to 

 escape the notice of observers gene- 

 rally — of mankind at large. 



§ 3. First, then, it is evident that 

 when the instances on one side of a 

 question are more likely to be remem- 

 bered and recorded than those on the 

 other, especially if there be any strong 

 motive to preserve the memory of the 

 first, but not of the latter, these last 

 are likely to be overlooked, and escape 

 the observation of the mass of man- 

 kind. This is the recognised explana- 

 tion of the credit given, in spite of 

 reason and evidence, to many classes 

 of impostors — to quack doctors and 

 fortune-tellers in all ages, to the 

 " cunning man " of modem times, and 

 the oracles of old. Few have con- 

 sidered the extent to which this fal- 

 lacy operates in practice, even in the 

 teeth of the most palpable negative 

 evidence. A striking example of it 

 is the faith which the uneducated 

 , portion of the agricultural classes, in 

 this and other countries, continue to 

 repose in the prophecies as to weather 

 supplied by almanac-makers, though 

 every season affords to them nume- 

 rous cases of completely erroneous 

 prediction ; but as every season also 

 furnishes some cases in which the 

 prediction is fulfilled, this is enough 

 to keep up the credit of the prophet 

 with people who do not reflect on the 

 immber of instances requisite for 

 what we have called, in our induc- 

 tive terminology, the Elimination of 

 Chance ; since a certain number of 

 casual coincidences not only may, but 

 will happen, between any two uncon- 

 nected events. 



Coleridge, in one of the essays in 

 the Friend, has illustrated the ujatter 

 we are now considering, in discussing 

 the origin of a proverb, " which, dif- 

 ferently worded, is to bo found in all 



the languages of Europe," viz. " For- 

 tune favours fools." He ascribes it 

 partly to the " tendency to exaggerate 

 all effects that seem disproportionate 

 to their visible cause, and all circum- 

 stances that are in any way strongly 

 contrasted with our notions of the 

 persons under them." Omitting some 

 explanations which would refer the 

 error to mal-observation or to the 

 other species of non-observation, (that 

 of circumstances,) I take up the quo- 

 tation farther on. *' Unforeseen co- 

 incidences may have greatly helped a 

 man, yet if they have done for him 

 only what possibly from his own 

 abilities he might have effected for 

 himself, his good luck will excite less 

 attention, and the instances be less 

 remembered. That clever men should 

 attain their objects seems natural, 

 and we neglect the circumstances 

 that perhaps produced that success of 

 themselves, without the intervention 

 of skill or foresight ; but we dwell on 

 the fact and remember it as some- 

 thing strange, when the same happens 

 tt> a weak or ignorant man. So too, 

 though the latter should fail in his 

 undertakings from concurrences that 

 might have happened t(i the wisest 

 man, yet his failure being no more 

 than might have been expected and 

 accounted for from his folly, it lays 

 no hold on our attention, but fleets 

 away among the other undistinguished 

 waves in which the stream of ordinary 

 life murmurs by us, and is forgotten. 

 Had it been as true as it was notoriously 

 false, that those all-embracing disco- 

 veries, which have shed a dawn of 

 science on the art of chemistry, and 

 give no obscure promise of some one 

 great constitutive law, in the light of 

 which dwell dominion and the power 

 of prophecy ; if these discoveries, in- 

 stead of having been, as they really 

 were, preconcerted by meditation, and 

 evolved out of his own intellect, had 

 occurred by a set of lucky accidents 

 to the illustrious father and founder 

 of philosophic alchemy ; if they had 

 presented themselves to Professor 

 Davy exclusively in consequence of 



