THE PHYSICAL MfiTHOC. 



58s 



collating the conclusions of the ratio- 

 cination either with the concrete phe- 

 nomena themselves, or, when such 

 are obtainable, with their empirical 

 laws The ground of confidence in 

 any concrete deductive science is not 

 the a priori reasoning itself, but the 

 accordance between its results and 

 those of observation a posteriori. 

 Either of these processes, apart from 

 the other, diminishes in value as the 

 subject increases in complication, and 

 this in so rapid a ratio as soon to be- 

 come entirely worthless ; but the re- 

 liance to be placed in the concurrence 

 of the two sorts of evidence not only 

 does not diminish in anything like 

 the same proportion, but is not neces- 

 sarily much diminished at all. No- 

 thing more results than a disturbance 

 in the order of precedency of the two 

 processes, sometimes amounting to its 

 actual inversion : insomuch that, in- 

 stead of deducing our conclusions by 

 reasoning, and verifying them by ob- 

 servation, we in some cases begin by 

 obtaining them provisionally from 

 specific experience, and afterwards 

 connect them with the principles of 

 human nature by d priori reasonings, 

 which reasonings are thus a real Veri- 

 fication. 



The only thinker who, with a com- 

 petent knowledge of scientific me- 

 thods in general, has attempted to 

 characterise the Method of Sociology, 

 M. Comte, considers this inverse 

 order as inseparably inherent in the 

 nature of sociological speculation. 

 He looks upon the social science as 

 essentially consisting of generalisa- 

 tions from history, verified, not origi- 

 nally suggested, by deduction from 

 the laws of human nature. Though 

 there is a truth contained in this 

 opinion, of which I shall presently 

 endeavour to show the importance, I 

 cannot but think that this truth is 

 enunciated in too unlimited a manner, 

 and that there is considerable scope 

 in sociological inquiry for the direct, 

 as well as for the inverse, Deductive 

 Method. 



It will, in fact, be shown in the 



next chapter, that there is a kind of 

 sociological inquiries to which, from 

 their prodigioiis complication, the 

 method of direct deduction is alto- 

 gether inapplicable, while by a happy 

 compensation it is precisely in these 

 cases that we are able to obtain the 

 best empirical laws : to these inquiries, 

 therefore, the Inverse Method is ex- 

 clusively adapted. But there are also, 

 as will presently appear, other cases 

 in which it is impossible to obtain 

 from direct observation anything 

 worthy the name of an empirical 

 law ; and it fortunately happens that 

 these are the very cases in which the 

 Direct Method is least affected by 

 the objection, which undoubtedly must 

 always affect it in a certain degree. 



We shall begin, then, by looking 

 at the Social Science as a science of 

 direct Deduction, and considering 

 what can be accomplished in it, and 

 under what limitations, by that mode 

 of investigation. We shall, then, in 

 a separate chapter, examine and en- 

 deavour to characterise the inverse 

 process. 



§ 2. It is evident, in the first place, 

 that Sociology, considered as a system 

 of deductions a priori, cannot be a 

 science of positive predictions, but 

 only of tendencies. We may be able 

 to conclude, from the laws of human 

 nature applied to the circumstances 

 of a given state of society, that a 

 particular cause will operate in a 

 certain manner unless counteracted ; 

 but we can never be assured to what 

 extent or amount it will so operate, 

 or aflBrm with certainty that it wilt 

 not be counteracted ; because we can 

 seldom know, even approximately, 

 all the agencies which may co-exist 

 with it, and still less calculate the 

 collective result of so many combined 

 elements. The remark, however, must 

 here be once more repeated, that 

 knowledge insuflacient for prediction 

 may be most valuable for guidance. 

 It is not necessary for the wise con- 

 duct of the affairs of society, no more 

 than of any one's private concerns, 



