THE PHYSICAL METHOD. 



593 



circumstances on which the truth of 

 the law ultimately depends. And thus, 

 even where conclusions derived from 

 specific observation are available for 

 practical inferences in new cases, it is 

 necessary that the deductive science 

 should stand sentinel over the whole 

 process ; that it should be constantly 

 referred to, and its sanction obtained 

 to every inference. 



The same thing holds true of all 

 generalisations which can be grounded 

 on history. Not only are there such 

 generalisations, but it will presently 

 be shown that the general science of 

 society, which inquires into the laws 

 of succession and co-existence of the 

 great facts constituting the state of 

 society and civilisation at any time, 

 can proceed in no other manner than 

 by making such generalisations — 

 afterwards to be confirmed by con- 

 necting them with the psychological 

 and ethological laws on which they 

 must really depend. 



§ 6. But (reserving this question 

 for its proper place) in those more 

 special inquiries which form the sub- 

 ject of the separate branches of the 

 social science, this twofold logical pro- 

 cess and reciprocal verification is not 

 possible : specific experience affoi'ds 

 nothing amoimting to empirical laws. 

 This is particularly the case where 

 the object is to determine the effect 

 of any one social cause among a great 

 number acting simultaneously ; the 

 effect, for example, of corn laws, or 

 of a prohibitive commercial system 

 generally. Though it may be per- 

 fectly certain, from theory, what kind 

 of effects corn laws must produce, 

 and in what general direction their 

 influence must tell upon industrial 

 prosperity, their effect is yet of neces- 

 sity so much disgiaised by the similar 

 or contrary effects of other influen- 

 cing agents, that specific experience 

 can at most only show that on the 

 average of some great number of in- 

 stances, the cases where there were 

 corn laws exhibited the effect in a 

 greater degree than those where there 



were not. Now the number of in- 

 stances necessary to exhaust the whole 

 round of combinations of the various, 

 influential circumstances, and thus 

 afford a fair average, never can be 

 obtained. Not only we can never 

 learn with sufficient authenticity the 

 facts of so many instances, but the 

 world itself does not afford them in 

 sufficient numbers, within the limits 

 of the given state of society and civi- 

 lisation which such inquiries always 

 presuppose. Having thus no pre- 

 vious empirical generalisations with 

 which to collate the conclusions of 

 theory, the only mode of direct verifica- 

 tion which remains is to compare those 

 conclusions with the result of an in- 

 dividual experiment or instance. But 

 here the difficulty is equally great. 

 For in order to verify a theory by an 

 experiment, the circumstances of the 

 experiment must be exactly the same 

 with those contemplated in the theory. 

 But in social phenomena the circum- 

 stances of no two cases are exactly 

 alike. A trial of corn laws in another 

 country or in a former generation 

 would go a very little way towards 

 verifying a conclusion drawn respect- 

 ing their effect in this generation and 

 in this country. It thus happens, in 

 most cases, that the only individual 

 instance really fitted to verify the 

 predictions of theory is the very in- 

 stance for which the predictions were 

 made ; and the verification comes too 

 late to be of any avail for practical 

 guidance. 



Although, however, direct verifica- 

 tion is impossible, there is an indirect 

 verification, which is scarcely of less 

 value, and which is always practicable. 

 The conclusion drawn as to the indi- 

 vidual case can only be directly veri- 

 fied in that case ; but it is verified 

 indirectly by the verification of other 

 conclusions, drawn in other individual 

 cases from the same laws. The ex- 

 perience which comes too late to verify 

 the particular proposition to which it 

 refers is not too late to help towards 

 verifying the general sufficiency of the 

 theory. The test of the degree in 



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