SCIENCE OF HISTORY. 



6n 



gtess, the order of succession of social 

 states, there is need of great flexi- 

 bility in our generalisations. The 

 limits of variation in the possible 

 development of social, as of animal 

 life, are a subject of which little is 

 yet understood, and are one of the 

 great problems in social science. It 

 is, at all events, a fact that different 

 portions of mankind, under the in- 

 fluence of different circumstances, 

 have developed themselves in a more 

 or less different manner and into dif- 

 ferent forms ; and among these de- 

 termining circumstances, the indivi- 

 dual character of their great specu- 

 lative thinkers or practical organisers 

 may well have been one. Who can 

 tell how profoundly the whole sub- 

 sequent history of China may have 

 been influenced by the individuality 

 of Confucius ? and of Sparta (and 

 hence of Greece and the world) by 

 that of Lycurgus ? 



Concerning the nature and extent 

 of what a great man under favoiu'able 

 circumstances can do for mankind, as 

 well as of what a government can do 

 for a nation, many different opinions 

 are possible ; and every shade of 

 opinion on these points is consistent 

 with the fullest recognition that there 

 are invariable laws of historical phe- 

 nomena. Of course the degree of in- 

 fluence which has to be assigned to 

 these more special agencies makes a 

 great difference in the precision which 

 can be given to the general laws, and 

 in the confidence with which pre- 

 dictions can be grounded on them. 

 Whatever depends on the peculiari- 

 ties of individuals, combined with the 

 accident of the positions they hold, is 

 necessarily incapable of being fore- 

 seen. Undoubtedly, these casual com- 

 binations might be elinjinated like any 

 others by taking a sufficiently large 

 cycle : the peculiarities of a great his- 

 torical character make their influence 

 felt in history sometimes for several 

 thousand years, but it is highly pro- 

 bable that they will make no difference 

 at all at the end of fifty millions. 

 Since, however, we cannot obtain an 



average of the vast length of time 

 necessary to exhaust all the possible 

 combinations of great men and cir- 

 cumstances, as much of the law of 

 evolution of human affairs as depends 

 upon this average is and remains in- 

 accessible to us ; and within the next 

 thousand years, which are of consider- 

 ably more importance to us than the 

 whole remainder of the fifty millions, 

 the favourable and unfavourable com- 

 binations which will occur will be to 

 us purely accidental. We cannot fore- 

 see the advent of greatmen. Those who 

 introduce new speculative thoughts or 

 great practical conceptions into the 

 world cannot have their epoch fixed 

 beforehand. What science can do is 

 this. It can trace through past his- 

 tory the general causes which had 

 brought mankind into that prelimi- 

 nary state, which, when the right sort 

 of great man appeared, rendered them 

 accessible to his influence. If this 

 state continues, experience renders it 

 tolerably certain that in a longer or 

 shorter period the great man will be 

 produced, provided that the general 

 circumstances of the country and 

 people are (which very often they are 

 not) compatible with his existence ; 

 of which point also science can in 

 some measure judge. It is in this 

 manner that the results of progress, 

 except as to the celerity of their pro- 

 duction, can be, to a certain extent, 

 reduced to regularity and law. And 

 the belief that they can be so is 

 equally consistent with assigning very 

 great, or very little efficacy, to the 

 influence of exceptional men, or of 

 the acts of governments. And the 

 same may be said of all other acci- 

 dents and disturbing causes. 



§ 4. It would nevertheless be a great 

 error to assign only a trifling impor- 

 tance to the agency of eminent indi- 

 viduals, or of governments. It must 

 not be concluded that the influence of 

 either is small because they cannot 

 bestow what the general circumstances 

 of society, and the course of its pre- 

 vious history, have not prepared it to 



