WHEAT AND THE WAR 



THE COURSE OF EVENTS— OCEAN FREIGHTS AND PRICES— 

 THE STATISTICAL POSITION— FUTURE PROSPECTS 



T. K. DOHERTY, LL.B., Commissioner International Institute of 

 Agriculture, Ottawa. 



The Course of Events 



After the declaration of war, Europe offered the unique spectacle in the world's 

 history of tens of millions of men turned from the processes of production to be consumers 

 and devastators of crops. Men, horses, and motive power were devoted to destruction. 

 Russia, one of the great sources of supply, was cut off from the rest of Europe by the 

 central allies. The Entente Allies and neutrals, anxiously concerned with the uncertain- 

 ties of the future, promptly proceeded to accumulate supplies, and notwithstanding the 

 enemies' submarine campaign, effectively drew upon the cereal stores of the western 

 world. • Sl 



Immediately after the declaration, the Entente Allies and the neutrals protected 

 themselves by the prohibition of the export of cereals and the abolition of customs 

 duties on imports. The removal of 37 cents a bushel in France and 40 cents in Italy 

 was a particularly effective stimulus to imports. Owing to the world's abundant 

 crops in 1913, together with the low prices and low freights prevalent at that time, 

 the year end stocks in the importing countries were large and exporting countries were 

 also reputed to have carried over larger supplies than usual. But 1914 produced a 

 world's total which the International Institute of Agriculture estimated to be 8% smaller 

 than that of the preceding year and, unfortunately, Canada and Australia furnished a 

 substantial proportion of that percentage. However, owing to the abundant harvests 

 in Russia, United States, Argentina, and India, the supplies would have been nearly 

 equal to the average requirements had there been no war. 



In October last, 1915, Sir James Wilson, K.C.S.I., Delegate for the United Kingdom 

 and the British Dominions on the Permanent Committee of the International Institute, 

 in the course of an interesting analysis of the situation quoted figures to establish that 

 fact. It appears from them that the exporting countries taken together, including 

 Russia, could have spared 692,000,000 bushels of wheat to meet a total estimated 

 demand of 697,000,000 bushels. He compares the actual trade for the grain year 

 1914-1915 with the five year average of 1909-1914. Dealing for imports with those of 

 the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Switzerland, Holland, Sweden, and Spain, and for 

 exports with those of the United States, Canada, Argentina, India, Algeria, Russia, 

 Rumania, and Australia, Sir James' analysis may be summarized and tabulated 

 approximately as follows: 



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