Imports (7 countries) 



Wheat Flour Wheat and Flour 



Bushels Bushels Bushels 



1914-15 367,000,000 36,000,000 403,000,000 



1909-1U4 337,000,000 49,000,000 386,000,000 



Exports (8 countries) 



1914-15 436,000,000 104,000,000 540,000,000 



1909-19K 531,000,000 102,000,000 633,000,000 



Sir James estimated that the normal exports of these eight countries for 1914-15 

 had there been no war would have been 676,000,000 bushels. He observes that the 

 United Kingdom in 1914-15 imported 8,800,000 bushels less than the advance average 

 estimates had indicated, and he quotes Broomhall as stating that at the end of the grain 

 year the stock in first hands amounted to 18,000,000 bushels as compared with 14,600,000 

 bushels the previous year. He concludes that the consumption, owing to high prices 

 and other causes, was less than average, and that the year ended with fairly increased 

 stocks. He observes, moreover, that the actual imports into France were 70,000,000 

 bushels compared with 40,700,000 bushels estimated as the normal requirement. Sir 

 lames states: "It seems probable that owing to increased imports and reduced con- 

 sumption she (France;, notwithstanding the loss of wheat caused by the war, will end 

 the year with stocks in hand considerably larger than she had at August 1st of last 

 year." 



Following this statement of facts, views, which from the point of view of the 

 importer were optimistic, appear to have been pretty generally held in Europe, and 

 especially in the United Kingdom, in the midsummer and early autumn of 1915. The 

 United Kingdom had harvested a record crop of 74,000,000 bushels of wheat. Impor- 

 ters were confident that with a prospective big world's supply from the 1915 crop the 

 British farmers would sell freely and imports would soon flow in from the abundant 

 North American harvests. European buyers, and especially those of the United 

 Kingdom, as we shall show more in detail later, were not at first induced by the low 

 prices of midsummer to make substantial purchases. It was, however, realized later 

 that the stocks carried over had been overestimated and were rapidly dwindling to an 

 insignificant amount. Exports from India which had been disappointingly small were 

 practically stopped in October in view of the dry weather having persisted for some 

 time in a number of the large wheat producing provinces. Owing to the protracted 

 heavy rains in the United States winter wheat regions, the harvest was late, and the 

 quality was poor as we shall later show. When the European demand did appear it 

 was most persistent and only limited by the lack of ships and the consequent extra- 

 ordinarily high freight rates which up to the close of the year did not cease climbing 

 until approximately 50 cents a bushel was charged from Atlantic ports to Liverpool 

 and $1.00 from Argentina. 



Just a word more about the progress of events during 1915 from the point of view 

 of production and trade. Early in the war, by the wiping out of the German mercha n 

 marine and the sinking of many British and neutral ships, the number of ships engaged 

 in ocean traffic was so reduced that those remaining were unable to cope with require- 

 ments, and with the increased freights, higher insurance, and greater cost of exchange, 

 there resulted an ever-widening margin between the price received by the producer of 

 wheat and the price paid by the European consumer. 



In January, 1915, Australia's wheat crop had been reported as only 25,000,000 

 bushels against 103,000,000 the previous year. Some time afterwards the Argentina 

 total, at first unofficially reported to be nearly 200,000,000 was subsequently lowered 

 to 168,000,000 bushels compared with 113,000,000 the year before. This was followed 

 by the Indian total at first reported as nearly 400,000,000 bushels, but subsequently 

 reduced to 383,000,000 bushels. 



154 



