Then came the earlier reports of the all important United States winter wheat, 

 which for area in crop exceeded the previous year by about 4,000,000 acres. Concerning 

 it grave fears had been expressed at the opening of the winter but the official report for 

 April placed the condition at 88.8, which was better than had been expected. The 

 May report with the small abandoned acreage foreshadowed a crop about equal to the 

 record one of the preceding year. The increased acreage and excellent condition of 

 spring wheat in Canada as well as in the United States at the same time suggested 

 enormous total yields for both countries. 



The May option in Chicago, which had been $1.68 in February, ended the month 

 of May at $1.39, and the much talked of corner had not materialized. The entry of 

 Italy into the war, the German submarine campaign culminating in the sinking of the 

 Lusitania, the higher condition of spring wheat in the United States (94.9), the increased 

 acreage ajid excellent condition of the Canadian crops, together with optimistic reports 

 concerning the growth of European cereals, were all features that operated for lower 

 prices. Red winter wheat in Chicago touched $1.11, $1.08, and 98 cents in June, 

 July and August respectively. The range was from 98 cents to $1.19^ in both August 

 and September. 



Stocks carried over into the new cereal year in Europe, August 1st, were with one 

 or two exceptions considered low. The quantity on passage over the ocean had rarely 

 been as small, not at least for 10 years back had there been such a small floating supply. 

 European buyers, as we have said, were slow in taking advantage of the opportunity 

 for making cheap advance purchases of supplies, a circumstance which contributed 

 not a little to the high prices soon to prevail. Mr. Geo. Broomhall on August 31st 

 gives imports to Great Britain in the fourth week of that month as 1,936,000 bushels 

 as compared with 5,832,000 in the preceding year, and imports for the four weeks of 

 that month were only 10,416,000 bushels compared with 20,064,000 bushels for the 

 corresponding month of the previous year. The total shipments into the United 

 Kingdom and to the Continent for the same period compared as 23,304,000 against 

 32,992,000. 



Both Mr. Broomhall and H. N. Bathgate & Co. so analyzed the situation about 

 that time as to show the expediency of vigorous measures to replenish British stocks. 

 On the 22nd and 24th of June, Bathgate & Co. had referred to the danger involved 

 through neglect to purchase after the heavy decline that had recently taken place. 

 The Bathgate statement of September 8th is worthy of being reproduced here as the 

 warnings sounded in it were prophetic of coming events. 



"The present and prospective large wheat crops for the current season are very 

 welcome; but unfortunately the fact that the promise is so good is having an adverse 

 effect in curtailing buying for forward delivery. It is of course well known that weekly 

 shipments have been small for two months, no doubt in anticipation of the relief to be 

 expected from Canada and U.S.A. This is all right so far as it goes, as naturally both 

 merchant and retailer would desire to avoid entering a new season with a heavy stock 

 of dear wheat and flour. There is, however, another side of the matter, and that is 

 that, if everyone refrain too long from buying, we shall be in the unpleasant position 

 of being faced with a spot shortage in a world of great plenty." 



The Bathgates continue in their weekly issues of their report to insist that British 

 buyers order early for forward movement, and on November 24th stated: "At this 

 moment the stocks of wheat and flour in this country are only about half the customary 

 average at this season of the year; and, indeed, if we consider the smallness of invisible 

 stocks in the hands of retailers, the total quantity may be actually a great deal less than 

 half." In the same issue the Bathgates observe: 



"In this country farmers are beignning to send their wheat to market more readily, 

 and will probably be free sellers just when native wheat is least wanted. They ought 

 to remember that they still have to dlspcse of fully three-quarters of a very abundant 



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