crop, and that they have to sell it in a season when possible supplies of foreign wheat are 

 the largest ever known. To hold on too long, with all sorts of political developments 

 on the card, appears to us to be a policy not likely to be justified by events." 



In July, August, and September, came from Canada and the United States reports 

 which exceeded each the preceding one in establishing record figures, but other influences 

 than the large production of wheat soon assumed paramount importance. There had 

 been extremely heavy rains in Kansas and the surrounding country, the downfall being 

 the greatest on record with the exception of 1904 and 1908. 



At harvest, in Kansas and the surrounding Western States, it turned out that a very 

 large proportion of the wheat crop was unfit for milling purposes and consequently 

 unmerchantable. Estimates of the quantity of wheat unmillable have varied between 

 60 million and 150 million bushels. Mr. George Broomhall, having first accepted the 

 larger reduction, seems to have finally accepted, for practical purposes, that 100 million 

 bushels were unmerchantable. 



Towards the close of the year, while generally optimistic reports on the North 

 American crops were appearing, the prospects for the approaching harvests in the 

 Southern Hemisphere were equally promising. At this time the world's statistical 

 position seemed to indicate a very considerable surplus above all requirements, and 

 crop reporting authorities of international repute, such as Mr. George Broomhall in 

 the "Corn Trade News" of January 4th, ascribed "the high F.O.B. prices in the United 

 States and Canada at that time to artificial causes, or in other words, to speculation." 

 However, on September 21, 1915, the Bathgates while acknowledging "world's harvests 

 of huge dimensions" make this significant observation: "On the whole we would say 

 that the tendency this year is to exaggerate the total quantity likely to be available, 

 whereas a year ago there was a disposition to underrate the supply." Further on 

 however, acknowledging that there would be more than sufficient wheat to go round and 

 leave a liberal surplus to carry forward into the next season, he says: "The trouble we 

 think will be experienced in moving the wheat from one part of the world to the other 

 owing to the shortage of shipping. It stands to reason that the more exporting countries 

 desire to sell, the keener will be the competition to obtain steamers, and as a natural 

 consequence freights will be likely to increase." As a matter of fact, at the end of 

 September the advance in freight rates had been as much as 50% in a little over a month, 

 and 2)4, times as much as the rates ruling the year previous when they were considerably 

 above normal. 



Having thus outlined the general trend of events during 1915, let us give particular 

 attention to the two features of prime importance just mentioned, viz., ocean rates and 

 prices. 



Ocean Freight Rates 



In view of the important role of freights in fixing the price of wheat it will be of 

 interest to present a few salient facts. Bearing on the cost of ocean freights on wheat 

 before and since the war, Sir James Wilson, in a recent analysis of the cereal situation, 

 elaborated some data compiled by the staff of the International Institute of Agriculture 

 from BroomhaH's "Corn Trade News." We use that analysis freely in the following 

 review. 



A rough comparison between prices and rates of freight may be made, always 

 remembering that the figures are not strictly comparable. Taking the average price 

 of wheat imported into the United Kingdom for ten years at $1.07 per bushel, broadly 

 speaking, the difference between that price and the average price of wheat in the over- 

 seas exporting countries is mainly accounted for by the cost of ocean freight, which 

 in normal times, as will be seen from the five year average 1909-13 given below, 

 varies from an average of 4.8 cents per bushel from New York to 18.5 cents from 

 the North Pacific ports. 



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