Is. per quarter duty on wheat was removed and with a big crop in 1870 the price 

 remained as in the preceding year, around $1.43, but on the continuance of the Franco- 

 Prussian War from 1870 to 1871 prices began mounting, and remained high through 

 1872, 1873 and 1874. In addition to war influences, the crops had been short in these 

 years with the exception of 1874, when both in England and in France crops were 

 good, but this was also the year of the Bengal famine. 



The last of very high priced wheat was seen in 1876 and 1877, coincident with 

 the Turko-Serbian War and the other Balkan Wars, which were finally settled in 1878. 

 In 1877 there also occurred the severe Indian famine. Still there was a poor British 

 harvest in 1879 and a wet harvest in 1881, so fairly high prices persisted until and 

 including 1882, being $1.37 in the last two years. 



We now witness a persistent slump between the latter year and 1895, a period 

 which marks the advent of advanced methods of agriculture, including fertilizers, 

 machinery, and especially the opening to cultivation in several countries of enormous 

 areas of virgin lands, factors tending to the cheapening of production and the creation 

 of abundant supplies. Europe was flooded with the wheat of the Western States. 

 These big shipments began in 1877 and were more or less predominant until 1907. 

 The wheat corner in 1898 apparently had little effect outside of the United States. 



In 1882 India, and especially Russia, expanded their production and exports. 

 Argentina began its first shipments in 1886 and from 1900 on became a serious competitor 

 in the world's markets. 



During this latter period Australia to a smaller extent and Canada to a greater 

 extent became additional contributors to the world's supplies, so that Canada in 1915 

 rose to the third rank of the world's producers, the United States having in that year 

 wrested the first position from Russia. 



Some apprehension has been expressed at various times on the part of producers 

 that with the continued expansion in the cultivation of wheat on virgin soils, together 

 with improved methods of production, there would be in the world a permanent plethora 

 of wheat with continued low prices. Still, with the accession since 1877 of all these 

 new sources of supply, it must be borne in mind that since 1895 there has been established 

 from year to year a slightly higher level of prices persisting until 1909, and it is doubtful 

 if we shall ever see again, except in short-lived, temporary fluctuations, even the low 

 average prices of 1910, 1911 and 1913. 



The Examination of the Situation arising from Supply and Demand 



In dealing with the question of supply and demand our attention will be confined 

 to those countries only which are not, through the operations of war, cut off from free 

 communication with the commercial world. Consequently, Germany, Austria-Hungary, 

 Belgium, Serbia, Bulgaria, Turkey, and even Rumania and Russia are excluded. 

 We shall refer later to the limited part Russia is enabled to take in this trade. 



For the purpose of enabling our readers to obtain a bird's-eye view of the situation 

 in the demand countries of Europe, there are presented in the following table in parallel 

 columns for the three years 1913, 1914, and 1915, three paramount trade factors, viz.: 

 (1) production; (2) imports; (3) a combination of the first two to form the total supply 

 available for consumption. The imports for 1913 and 1914 are the actual imports, 

 while for 1915 the amounts contained in the corresponding column are estimated 

 requirements. 



The figures in the following table refer to the grain year beginning August 1st, and 

 comprise not only wheat but wheat flour converted into an equivalent of wheat. 



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