All the data in the above table have been taken from the Bulletin of Agricultural 

 and Commercial Statistics, excepting those of the estimated requirements for 1915, 

 which are from Broomhall's "Corn Trade News" of January 25, 1916.* 



There has often been a tendency on the other side to begin the season 

 by underestimating the requirements. It will be remembered that Mr. Broom- 

 hall on the 31st of August, 1915, estimated these requirements for 1915-16 

 at only 416,000,000 bushels, Bathgate & Co. on November 3rd estimating them 

 at 506,000,000 bushels. We would venture the opinion that even Mr. BroorrihaH's 

 latest estimate of 560,000,000 bushels — in which is included the provision for increasing 

 the floating supply to a normal size at the close of the grain year — will turn out to be 

 much too small, especially the 476,000,000 bushels allotted to Europe. 



In a forecast of this nature in the absence of ascertained facts there are certain 

 features which it is well to take into account. It appears from the above table, for 

 instance, that the European production of 1915 is practically the same as that of 1914, 

 but that it is 71,725,000 bushels smaller than the production of 1913. In 1913 the total 

 domestic production of these countries, plus the imports, gave a total supply of 

 1,202,877,000 bushels. In 1915 the total production of these countries, plus the 

 476,000,000 which Mr. Broomhall allows for imports, furnishes a total supply of 

 1,156,459,000 bushels, an amount 46,418,000 smaller than the total for 1913. In order 

 therefore to provide supplies of equal amount for 1915, it would be necessary to add 

 46,418,000 to the 476,000,000 required imports estimated by Mr. Broomhall, making 

 in all for these European countries total requirements of 522,418,000 bushels. This 

 would bring the world's total exclusive of provision for the short floating supply to 

 582,418,000, and with that floating supply a world's total of 606,418,000 bushels. 



The amount of 60,000,000 bushels for countries outside of Europe compares with 

 the normal of 96,000,000 in 1913. Allowing Broomhall's estimate to stand, although 

 it may appear somewhat small, it will be well to consider that an amount of 606,000,000 

 of imports is not excessive. In times of peace for the five years previous to the war 

 the world's imports averaged 624,000,000 annually. The grain year 1914-15 was an 

 abnormal one because of the crop failures in certain of the exporting countries. There 

 was a good deal of disorganization of the ocean traffic from the first successes of the 

 German submarine campaign, at the same time that prices, especially in North America, 

 ranged at a high figure. Then that year, it is admitted, started with abundant supplies 

 carried over from 1913 when there was everywhere a plethora of wheat. In the latter 

 half of the grain year 1915-16 the disturbance in transport owing to high freights has 

 through the recent intervention of the allied European Governments been somewhat 

 relieved, with the result that a comparatively free movement of cereals at more reason- 

 able rates is confidently expected. Prices in the exporting countries are not unduly 

 inflated, inflation being confined altogether to ocean freight rates; the needs of the 

 importing countries are more urgent than ever, and stocks of wheat must be accumulated 

 from the world's abundant crops against the many uncertainties of the future. The 

 necessity for holding larger reserves is quite as imperative in the exporting countries, 

 whose supplies were so cleaned out on the 1st of August, 1915, that the customary 

 ocean floating supplies were reduced by one-half. 



It will be of interest to dwell for a moment on the very considerable needs of France 

 in the current year. The table shows her total supply of wheat to have been reduced 

 from 373,000,000 bushels in 1913 to 345,000,000 in 1914, and that with the 72,000,000 

 of imports allowed by Mr. Broomhall she would have during the current year only 

 309,000,000 bushels for consumption. The remark made in the "Corn Trade News" 

 of January 4th is significant: "Recently the Government have been importing flour 

 from England and taking large quantities of wheat flour from America, which imports, 



♦Mr. Broomhall in the same issue published a revised up-to-date statement of the imports for 

 1914-15 at 524,464,000 bi ihels, which figures should, for practical purposes, be substituted for the 

 499,040,000 mentioned above. 



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