Note the total acreage and yield per acre during the last three new high record 

 years; also the sharp rise from the 11-year average of 46,000,000 acres to 50, 53, and 59 

 million acres respectively. The yields per acre in the last two years, viz. 16.6 and 16.9 

 have not been equalled, not only in the whole period since 1882 but at any time. And the 

 yield for 1913, 15.2, was in the 11-year period repeated only in 1906, 1909, and 1912, 

 when the yields were 15.05, 15.4, and 15.9 respectively. 



Moreover, the whole period of 33 years, with the exception of the last three, does 

 not show a grouping of three successive years of big crops. Observe in the table the 

 years of low production which have almost invariably followed high record years. 



Other producing countries have had very similar experience although not so striking. 

 Argentina had three good years in succession, 1906, 1907, and 1908, producing 155, 192, 

 and 156 million bushels; but 1909 only produced 131 million. 1911 and 1912 gave 166 

 and 187 million bushels, but 1913 only 113 million bushels. Although during the last 

 two years the Argentine crops were fair ones, the record crop of 192 millions reaped in 

 1907 has not since been repeated. Russia produced 154 million quintals in 1905; the 

 production fell very much below that afterwards until 1909 when there was a record 

 of 193 million quintals and a new record was not established again until 1913 when there 

 were 228 million quintals. 



In Europe, the United Kingdon, Germany, and Austria-Hungary have had a 

 pretty steady production, with the United Kingdom and Germany increasing their 

 production. France and Italy, however, hardly hold their own. 



Canada's two good years 1912 and 1913 were followed by the short crop of 1914 

 and the tremendous harvest of 1915. The determining factor in this big crop was not 

 so much the increase of some 2,700,000 acres in crop but the difference in yield per acre 

 between 15.67 in 1914 and 28.90 in 1915 practically doubled the crop. Such a magnifi- 

 cent result can be reached again only by the miracle of perfect co-operation of Nature 

 with the extraordinary efforts of our patriotic farmers. If Nature should not be 

 propitious, then what a responsibility in this terrible conflict upon those who do not 

 exert themselves to the utmost! Already there has been a bad start in that only 53% 

 of the ploughing is reputed to have been done last fall in comparison with 71% in the 

 fall of 1914. The official figures in November last were that at the end of October 

 from 27 to 36% were ploughed compared with from 56 to 92% the previous year. 

 There were 193,000 acres less sown to wheat last autumn than were sown in the previous 

 autumn, besides there was 20% less summer fallowing than in 1914. 



What if the United States in the coming year should return to their 11-year average 

 of 659,000,000 bushels and have only sufficient for their own absolute needs? Conditions 

 were so unfavourable last fall that the acreage they were able to put in winter wheat 

 was 4,756,000 acres short of that sown in the fall of 1914. The crop has already had 

 a bad start with insufficient snow covering on a large area and has been visited by 

 dangerous frosts. Damage is also reported from serious inundations so that the 

 abandoned acreage in the coming spring is almost certain to be larger than last season 

 which was exceptionally favourable from that point of view. With a serious drought 

 affecting the crop which India is about to harvest in March, placing her probably 

 outside of the group of exporting countries, how disastrous would be a crop failure in 

 both Canada and the United States! 



Crop Prospects for the World s Wheat Crops in 1916 — Conclusions 



A few notes from the official reports and the leading Agricultural and Trade 

 Journals will furnish some information concerning the conditions under which winter 

 crops have been sown, how they are wintering, etc. 



170 



