although this year's crop may not be a good one yet it will be sufficient to prevent 

 any fear of famine. In the other provinces irrigated area would probably not average 

 five per cent. 



February 1. — Total area in wheat was reported revised to 28,244,000 acres as 

 against 29,752,000 the previous year, a decrease of 5%. Exports from India were 

 stopped in October on the first appearance of dry weather. March 14. — Crop promises 

 well, of fair quality. 



Conclusions 



The statements and data mentioned in the preceding pages may now be briefly 

 summarized. When it became known by the midsummer of 1915 that the world's 

 wheat crops would reach a record figure prices fell on this Continent even considerably 

 below the dollar mark. Overseas importers with low reserve stocks at home, while 

 floating supplies were reduced by one-half, neglected for a time to take advantage of 

 the opportunities for the purchase of comparatively cheap wheat. When it was realized 

 that a large proportion of the United States winter wheat crop was unmillable and sup- 

 plies of merchantable wheat were slow in coming to market a sudden demand sprang up 

 for wheat and fdr ships to carry it. The fact that huge spring crops of prime quality 

 had been harvested did not interrupt that persistent demand nor did the fact that the 

 subsequent harvests of the Southern Hemisphere were equally promising. Note, 

 however, was taken of the seriousness of the drought prevailing in India where earlier in 

 the season a bumper crop had been predicted. A further discouraging factor from the 

 importer's point of view was the United States winter wheat report indicating a reduc- 

 tion of 4,700,000 acres seeded to that cereal and a disappointing pre-winter condition. 



However, the ocean freight situation had become of greater importance to the 

 European importer than the enhanced prices. At the end of September freights had 

 already advanced as much as 50% in a month and were already twice as high as the 

 rates ruling the year previous when they were considered above normal. 



Practically one-half of the merchant marine had disappeared from the ordinary 

 channels of trade, and there was the keenest competition to secure the tonnage of the 

 remaining half, so that by January the previously unheard of rates of 50 cents per bushel 

 from New York to Liverpool and $1.00 from Buenos Aires were reached. Mr. Broom- 

 hall aptly observed on January 18th that while the price of wheat had risen 90% there 

 had been a rise of nearly 500% in freights. Then came Government intervention. 

 The Government of Australia intervened to remedy the situation in so far as the 

 transportation of the Commonwealth wheat crop was concerned, and the British Home 

 Government subsequently took action that tended at first to steady and afterwards to 

 reduce the exorbitant charges. 



Concerning prices, we have observed in this war the same tendency as in other 

 great wars for the price of wheat to rise and fluctuate widely with the predominance of 

 a comparatively high level even in spite of record production in the exporting countries. 

 We have examined how for thirty years the enormous stores of wheat from virgin lands 

 flooded Europe with cheap wheat; how increased population, and demand from increased 

 consumption was finally capable of absorbing the whole production; how there followed 

 what might be termed a stabilizing of production, so that fluctuations through a series 

 of years resulted in a fair average, there being shown an increase of only 2% per annum 

 in the total production of the world's wheat crops during the ten years ending August 1914. 



Even with the exploitation of new sources of supply there has been from year to 

 year "since 1895 a higher level of prices, which persisted until 1909, and there is some 

 better basis than a mere pious hope that the low average prices of 1910, 1911 and 1912 

 will not be repeated. 



Our tables have shown that since the outbreak of the war fairly high prices have 

 been maintained with the exception of about three months in the late summer and 

 fall of 1915. It has been suggested that some big milling interests and elevator com- 

 panies were last season, as they had been often before, quite active in inducing the 



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