EXPECTATION VALUE OF STUMPAGE 97 



If he pays $5 and stumpage does not rise he loses upwards of 

 two million dollars in the twenty years. What can he pay if he 

 expects stumpage to stay at $5? About $3.10 per M. feet. 



In these calculations no attention is paid to expenses, taxes, pro- 

 tection, etc., which the owner has to incur in holding these forest 

 lands. The way of computing these was indicated under cost value 

 of stumpage and in other connections. 



From what has been said about stumpage valuation it is evi- 

 dent that in most cases it is a matter of business judgment and inti- 

 mate knowledge of conditions which guides the investor. This 

 knowledge is largely one of forest utilization. The methods of cal- 

 culation or arrangement of data present nothing new but follow the 

 general lines of forest valuation. 



The traffic in stumpage as it has existed in the United States 

 up to the present time will be modified in time and take more and 

 more the form of timber sale now in use on the national forests and 

 in the more settled districts change to the form of timber disposal 

 now in use in central Europe. Good silviculture will press steadily 

 for full control of the timber cutting. 



