52 LESSONS IN POULTRY KEEPING -SECOND SERIES. 



LESSON VI. 



Possibilities and Probabilities in Poultry Culture. 



IN THIS lesson I am going to depart a little from the usual plan of the lessons. There 

 are several reasons for doing this. First of all the subject is too big for a lesson of 

 the usual length. Next, I think it can be presented most effectively by treating it in 

 three principal divisions. And, finally, I think that the points it makes in the concluding 

 division will be much more generally appreciated if illustrative examples are used much more 

 freely than has been found practicable in the lessons in general. 



So we take the subject up in three sections. The first section will consist of a reprint of a 

 part of a lecture given by me at various places some years ago, and published in full in the 

 issue of this paper for August 15, 1902. The second section will be in narrative form, and 

 will tell of the poultry experiences of a large number of persons both those who have failed, 

 and those who have succeeded in poultry keeping. The third section will give in systematic 

 form a statement of conditions and circumstances making the possibilities, or affecting the 

 probabilities of success in any line of poultry keeping. 



I hope to be able in this way so to present the subject that anyone can determine for him- 

 self what is best for him to do, and what lines it will be most advantageous for him to follow. 



Why the Failures in Poultry Keeping. 



It is commonly asserted that over ninety per cent of all business ventures fail. On what 

 authority this assertion is based I have never been able to learn, but I have very strong doubt* 

 of its accuracy. It is also commonly believed that the proportion of failures to successes is 

 very much larger in the poultry business than in almost any other line. 



If this is so, and if the general statement in regard to business failures is correct, the per- 

 centage of successes in poultry keeping would have to be very small indeed. 



It is not now, and perhaps never will be, possible to get accurate data on this point, but we 

 can still make comparisons which will have some value in indicating the relative number of 

 failures among poultry keepers. Some months ago, just to satisfy my own curiosity, I took a 

 copy of a poultry paper for March, 1891 ten years ago and went through the classified 

 advertisements in it, checking the names of advertisers who, to my knowledge, were still 

 engaged in the poultry business, and including with these the names of a few who had died 

 while active in the business. Of 240 persons advertising stock in that paper of ten years 

 ago, I found that 50 more than twenty per cent were still engaged in the business. As I 

 omitted the names of a number I think (but do not positively know) are still in the business, 

 and as it is probable that a number of the others of whom I know nothing at all are still in 

 the business, perhaps a thorough investigation would show nearly as many more still interested 

 in poultry keeping. So that that method of getting an indication of the proportion of failures 

 would indicate that they were not more than sixty to sixty-five per cent. 



