124 THE TREND OF THE RACE 



There is no doubt that the dominant tendencies at the present 

 time are in the direction of racial uniformity rather than diver- 

 gence, and that whether nations remain at peace or engage in war 

 the process of unification will still go on. The ultimate result in 

 any case will depend largely on the relative birth rates of superior 

 and inferior types. The racial character of the survivors will 

 doubtless be influenced according as the final unification will be 

 effected forcibly or peaceably, but which outcome would be the 

 more desirable from the eugenic standpoint is by no means a 

 simple problem. Conflict may be defended as a means of insuring 

 the predominance of the best racial elements. Whether or not it 

 will do so, or whether it is the only or the best method of attaining 

 this end is a complex question, which I shall not attempt to dis- 

 cuss here. Nor is it my intention to touch upon the difficult 

 ethical and political aspects of the effort to maintain a high birth 

 rate, which characterizes the poHcy of miHtaristic nations. Cer- 

 tain it is that a high birth rate with the temptations which it 

 brings for nations to overflow their boundaries and encroach upon 

 neighboring territories has led to frequent wars in the past, and 

 will doubtless continue to be a source of strife in the future. The 

 different rates of increase of different nations are bound to 

 bring many difficult situations whose adjustment will seriously 

 tax the resources of those who would maintain the peace of the 

 world. ^ 



A most important feature of the decline of the birth rate is the 

 fact that the fecundity of different classes of people is very 

 unequally affected. In the United States we have a marked 

 decline of the birth rate among people of American parentage, 

 while the immigrants who, up to the period of the present war 

 have been arriving on our shores in ever increasing numbers, 

 Still continue to produce large families. Owing to the general 

 lack of birth statistics in the United States, estimates must be 

 based upon the age distribution of the population at different 

 decades, and the birth statistics from a few states in which birth 



^ As Prof. Ross has remarked, "The real enemy of the dove of peace is not the 

 eagle of pride or the vulture of greed, but the stork." — Changing America. 



