348 THE TREND OF THE RACE 



cian Von Mayr, is of outside origin. But until more is known of 

 the relative fertility of those born in the city and those who come 

 in from the country it cannot be ascertained to what extent the 

 populations of cities are really self-sustaining. As stated pre- 

 viously the population of Paris and that of Berlin is not reproduc- 

 ing itself. The remarkably low birth rate of several cities of 

 Switzerland renders it probable that the same conclusion holds 

 for them also. Ballod has attempted to show, on the basis of 

 studies on the average duration of life in Germany, that in several 

 large cities the population would show a small deficit were it not 

 for the influx of people from the outside who help to swell their 

 birth rate. The same conclusion is drawn for ten of the most 

 urban districts of France. Estimates of the real natural increase 

 of cities present many difficulties and in most cases data are not 

 available for a separate estimate of the births of the native and 

 the immigrant elements of the city population. Ballod's calcula- 

 tions were based on statistics compiled in the last two decades of 

 the 19th century, since when there has been a considerable 

 decline in urban birth rates. Death rates have also declined so 

 that comparisons with present day conditions cannot be made 

 without an extensive reinvestigation. We are reasonably safe in 

 saying, however, that several cities would not sustain themselves 

 at the present time if it were not for immigration from the outside. 



The rapid fall of the urban birth rate has affected most the 

 classes upon whose intelligence, initiative and energy the rank of 

 a people mainly depends. It is a very difficult task to estimate 

 the eugenic worth of city immigrants as compared with that of 

 the native city born; data on the subject as well as opinions are 

 conflicting. With more accurate and extensive demographical 

 bookkeeping this important question could doubtless be def- 

 initely settled. But however the stream of urban migration 

 compares with the rest of the race, the process of diminishing the 

 capable and enterprising elements of the community is appar- 

 ently intensified in cities, and especially large cities. 



One important consequence of the development of modern 

 industry is the increasing employment of woman and the growing 



