Biological Possibilities 1n the Next Ten Thousand Years 
Shaw, in Back to Methuselah, was correct as to the social value of 
longevity. So I mention it on the general principle that “There 
is some soul of goodness in things evil”’. 
I naturally prefer to hope that the fifth alternative will be 
true, and shall write what follows on that assumption. I am 
not unduly impressed by the prophecies of famine due to over- 
population. Thirty years ago responsible statisticians were writ- 
ing about “‘ The twilight of parenthood’’, “‘ Les berceaux vides”’, 
and so on; and I was fool enough to believe them. It now seems 
that fairly satisfactory oral contraceptives are available, though 
they are very costly. In twenty years they should be available 
all over the world, and the article which an eminent Glasgow 
professor described as “‘a cuirass against pleasure, a cobweb 
against infection”? should be a museum piece. So, I hope, will 
the instruments of surgical abortion now widely used in Japan 
and France. There is no organized religious opposition to birth 
control in India except from the Catholic church. If this body 
continues its opposition it may be necessary to forbid emigration 
from catholic states whose population continues to expand, until 
these states support religious celibacy on such a scale as to check 
their population growth. I suspect however that it will adapt 
itself to chemical contraception as it has adapted itself to usury, 
which in Dante’s mind was a sin comparable with sodomy, 
though slightly worse. 
India could probably support twice its present population, 
on a much better diet than today’s, with improved agricultural 
methods, irrigation, and flood control. However the remark- 
able discoveries of S. K. Roy, which could probably raise our 
rice yields by 20 per cent, have attracted no more notice than 
did those of Shull and East on maize fifty years ago. If the world 
population reaches ten thousand millions we shall have to make 
a lot of synthetic food, besides utilizing leaf proteins directly. 
Why not? 
If we can assume that our descendants will be free from ato- 
mic war and famine, we may ask five main questions which 
we should try to answer separately: 
(1) What performances, given suitable environments, are 
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