Three Historical Appraisals: Innovating 17 



There is, as I suggested, an endless procession of such ex- 

 amples, not only in the area of hardware but in other areas as 

 well. From teflon to tissue transplants, from sunspots to sea 

 depths, and from supercavitating propellers to high-altitude 

 plastic balloons, — the universe is ONR's field of study and the 

 Fleet has reaped the profit. 



I am told that the total cost, even when most generously 

 estimated, of the research programs which ONR has sponsored 

 in 20 years is less than $2 billion. We might ask ourselves 

 what it would have cost us to attain the current level of tech- 

 nical readiness in our forces without the benefit of the science 

 and technology which has sprung from this $2 billion expendi- 

 ture. Project Hindsight, a study on this and related questions 

 conducted by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, is in the 

 process of generating hard data in support of the general con- 

 jecture that this would have increased the cost of our military 

 establishment by a sizable factor, — assuming all along that 

 the same time to achieve this build-up would be available as 

 our current commitments to learning and exploratory work 

 have secured for the Western World. 



As to the future needs of the Fleet, we also have some ideas, 

 and it is a measure of the intimacy of the relationship that 

 exists between ONR and the Fleet that most of these ideas 

 probably somehow originated with and — at the least — are 

 continually tempered by research in which the Navy partic- 

 ipates under ONR's aegis. No doubt, some of the more impor- 

 tant future needs of the Fleet are below the surface of the seas. 

 This is an area in which we have done relatively little in 

 comparison with what, as we have learned to see it, can and 

 needs to be done. No matter how emphatic our concern with 

 ASW, it has not yet brought us the breakthrough that would 

 allow us to penetrate the opaque environment which shields 

 the submarines of all nations. We are confident that we will 

 be able to confine any submarine threat for the present with 

 what we have available now, but beyond this there are yet 

 greater possibilities to consider for the future. The means of 



