58 THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAPONS SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS 



Function High-Attrition Air Defense 

 Against Medium Bombers 



Features (1) Compatibility with Surface-to-Air 

 Missile System 



(2) Compatibilty with Fleet 

 Elements, Logistics, and Tactics 



(3) Compatibility with Transonic 

 Interceptor Aircraft -- 30,000 Lb 

 Gross Weight 



Mission Accomplishment Goals 



20 40 60 80 100 

 FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE 



Mission Accomplishment Goals (See Inset Figure) 



(1) 



(2) 



Fig. 2-8 Operatioric 



A 20-Plane Raid at 50,000 ft and 800 fps shall be Employed as 

 the Input for Judging System Performance. 

 System Performance shall be Judged as Satisfactory if the 

 System can be Demonstrated to Attain or Exceed the Following 

 Performance Levels (As Indicated by the Shaded Area in 

 the Figure) 



(a) 50 per cent Probability of Killing all 20 Targets 



(b) 90 per cent Probability of Killing 16 Targets 



(c) 99 per cent Probability of Killing 12 Targets 



All Kills are to be Accomplished at a Minimum Distance of 

 50 n.mi. from Fleet Center 



.1 Requirements, Attack Carrier Task Force Interceptor Ai 

 Defense. 



k. Return to base 



/. Transfer of residual target elements to the surface-to-air missile 

 support defense system. 



A diagrammatic summary representation of the overall tactical situation 

 is shown in Fig. 2-9. 



The statistical nature of the system operation is shown by this diagram. 

 For various reasons — interceptor availability, time limitations, system 

 failures, system inaccuracies — a certain percentage of the interceptors fail 

 to complete each of the successive steps required for interception. 



Thus, any interceptor chosen at random from the total complement has a 

 certain probability that it will kill a target. This probability is the product 

 of the individual probabilities that it will pass successfully through each 

 successive stage of the interception. 



This line of reasoning points out the necessity for obtaining a proper 

 balance between the performance of various elements of the system. A 



