Introduction 11 



Reservations 



The primary purpose of this Essay is to show that a 

 known natural cause originates an agricultural cycle 

 which in turn generates other economic cycles. The 

 perturbations in the ultimate cycles are not discussed, 

 and these perturbations will doubtless be traced in part 

 to natural, and, in part, to psychical and social origins. 

 Because one element of the weather, rainfall, has been 

 seized upon and its effects have been tracked into re- 

 mote regions, it does not follow that temperature,^ sun- 

 shine, and wind are regarded as negligible. Because a 

 natural eight-year cycle has been isolated is no reason 

 for denying the possible existence of other natural 

 cycles, major or minor. Because some regularities in 

 economic changes have been shown to originate in 

 natural causes, it would be most unphilosophic to claun 

 that the effects of the known regular causes may not be 

 partially or totally offset by the effects of other causes, 

 natural or social, regular or fortuitous. The object has 

 been to find one cause and to follow its effects into 

 their ultunate ramifications. 



However ingenious may be the mathematical meth- 

 ods that are used to isolate periodicities, there will 

 always be a healthy skepticism as to the reality of the 

 cycles unless true causes are adduced. Mere empirical 

 regularities are always suspect. While, therefore, in 

 the quest of cycles, I have always tried to scrutinize the 

 data by means of impartial mathematical devices, I 

 have not remained content with empirical results but 



^ Forecasting the Yield and the Price of Cotton, 1917. 



