34 Generating Economic Cycles 



rials of manufacture is computed, its maxima will 

 occur, approximately, at 1882, 1890, 1898, 1906, 1914, 

 and the graph of the cycle will run in the manner de- 

 scribed in the bottom curve of Figure 10. 



There are two observations with regard to the 

 theory of economic cycles that need to be emphasized 

 by frequent repetition . The first was made by Professor 

 Aftalion, the second by Rodbertus. 



After estimating the average length of cycles since 

 1857 at approxmiately eight years, Professor Aftahon 

 stated that the essential problem in the theory of eco- 

 nomic cycles is to discover the cause of the rhythm. 

 '^L'observation du rythme de la production generale 

 fait . . . seulement comprendre la survenance d'une 

 hausse, puis d'une baisse generale des prix, Fexistence 

 d'un rythme. EUe ne nous donne pas Fexphcation de 

 la duree de cette hausse ni de cette baisse, de la duree des 

 phases du rythme." ^ 



In one of the briefer essays of Rodbertus, ''Physio- 

 kratie und Anthropokratie," - the initiator of the social- 

 ist theory of business cycles stresses the importance of 

 discovering the natural cause of the economic rhythm 

 in order that society may set about adjusting itself in 

 the light of the acquired knowledge. He draws the 

 distinction between the rule of nature — Physioki'atie — 

 and the rule of man — Anthropokratie. Quesnay and 

 Adam Smith and their followers, according to Rodber- 

 tus, regarded the problems of social science primarily 



^Albert Aftalion, Les Crises periodiques de surproduction, vol. ii, pp. 41, 

 42. 



* Rodbertus- Jagetzow, Briefe und Social politische Aufsdtze. 



