56 Generating Economic Cycles 



articles published in the Journal of the Royal Statistical 

 Society the following were among the conclusions that 

 were reached:^ 



(1) The yield per acre of representative crops in 

 the United Kingdom since 1884 — when the 

 figures for the yield per acre of the crops be- 

 gan to be collected officially — passed through 

 eight-year cycles which were synchronous with 

 the cycles of eight years in the yield of the 

 American crops; 



(2) The yield per acre of representative crops in 

 France was closely correlated with the yield in 

 the United Kingdom and passed through eight- 

 year cycles which were synchronous with the 

 crop cycles in the United Kingdom and in the 

 United States. 



The synchronism of the crop cycles in these three 

 countries and the demonstrated existence of derived 

 eight-year cycles of agricultural prices in the United 

 States, which, according to the law of competitive price, 

 induced corresponding cycles in the prices of manu- 

 factured commodities, would seem to indicate that the 

 clue to the observed eight-year cycle in Sauerbeck's 

 index numbers of general prices might be found in the 

 eight-year cycles of the crops. 



Holding fast to this clue we shall present evidence to 

 show that throughout the interval under investigation, 

 1818 to 1913, and for a still longer period, the British 



' "Crop Cycles in the United Kingdom and in the United States," 

 May, 1919; "Crop Cycles in the United Kingdom and in France," 

 May, 1920. 



