CHAPTER IV 



THE ORIGIN OF THE EIGHT-YEAR GENERATING 



CYCLE 1 



Summary 



The persistence of the eight-year generating cycle in England for 

 one hundred and sixty years; the congruence of the eight-year crop 

 cycles in England, France, and the United States; the persistence 

 of the eight-year meteorological cycles, and their congruence in 

 Europe and America; the congruence of the economic and meteoro- 

 logical cycles — -these uniformities and agreements suggest that 

 their cause must be sought in a cosmical cycle. The probable 

 cause is the planet Venus in its eight-yearly periodic motion with 

 respect to the Earth and the Sun. 



Generating economic cycles are to be described as 

 economic cycles that have their origin in non-economic 

 causes and become the originating source of derived 

 economic cycles. The theory of generating cycles em- 

 braces three fundamental inquiries: first, as to the 

 existence of generating cycles, their length, amplitudes 

 and phases; second, as to the ways in which the generat- 

 ing cycles work out their rhythmic effects in remote 

 parts of economic life; and third, as to the cause of 

 generating cycles. In previous chapters I have dealt 

 with the first and second of these divisions. We 

 must now attempt to place the cause of the eight-year 

 generating cycle. 



^This chapter was first published, sul)staiitially in its present form, 

 in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, November, 1921. 



