88 Generating Economic Cycles 



Upon the preceding passages I make these notes: 



(1) As far back as 1901 the United States Weather 

 Bureau isolated a cycle in the barometric pressure of the 

 United States; 



(2) That cycle was an eight-year cycle which was 

 synchronous with the cycles in economics and meteorol- 

 ogy to which constant reference has been made in this 

 essay ; 



(3) Professor Bigelow regarded the isolation of the 

 cycle as "an important discovery in barometric 

 science," the discussion of which ''opens to us for the 

 first time the prospect of a scientific basis for seasonal 

 forecasts"; 



(4) Professor Bigelow suspected a cosmical cause of 

 the phenomenon, but known solar periodicities failed 

 to satisfy the conditions: ''if the pressure period is 8 

 years and the sun-spot period is 11 years that connec- 

 tion cannot be complete in its nature." 



What is the cosmical cause of the eight-year cycle? ^ 



The Cause of the Eight-Year Generating Cycle 



Is there a cosmical cycle of approximately eight 

 years in length, the effects of which upon the Earth 

 might account for the observed nieteorological cycles? 

 Let us divide this question into two and ask (1) is there 

 a cosmical cycle of eight years in length which is syn- 

 chronous with the observed meteorological cycles? 

 (2) is there reason for believing that the cosmical cycle 



^This chapter was first printed in 1921. Since then I have shown 

 that the annual rainfall in the United States as a unit, according to the 

 records of about two hundred stations, passes through the same eight- 

 year cycle. See the discussion in Chapter I. 



