236 



IV-11.MAEKS ON THE OBSERVED PERIODICITY OF 

 THE DEATH-RATE, WITH SUGGESTIONS AS TO 

 ITS POSSIBLE RELATION WITH THE PERIODI- 

 CITY OF SOLAR AND OTHER SUPER-TERRES- 

 TRIAL PHENOMENA. 



By Robt. M. Johnston, F.L.S., Etc. 



[Bead August llth, 1884.] 



The remarkable curves wMcli determine the maxima and 

 minima of sunspots, auroral and magnetic phenomena, earth- 

 tremors, earthquakes, barometric, magnetic, and other 

 secular disturbances, have again and again attracted the 

 attention of many skilled observers ; and while it is generally- 

 admitted that the limits of time and space within which 

 records of such matters have been carefully tabulated are, as 

 yet, too circumscribed to throw light upon many anomalies, 

 it is almost conclusive that the movements of the larger of 

 the planets, notably Jupiter, exercise a very powerful influence 

 mediately or immediately upon the several matters referred 

 to. In the March number of the journal of the Statistical 

 Society of London for 1879, there is an interesting paper by 

 Mr. B. G. Jenkins, F.R.A.S., in which it is attempted to be 

 shown that there is a probable connection between the yearly 

 death-rate of England and the position of the planet Jupiter 

 in his orbit. He states that on representing by diagram the 

 deaths in England for the last thirty-nine years he was not a 

 little surprised to find, as he had already expected, that there 

 was a marked difference in the number of deaths every six 

 years ; in the majority of cases a low death-rate being suc- 

 ceeded by a very high one. On mapping out the curve for 

 Jupiter's course for the last thirty-nine years ending in 1880, 

 he found, so far as England was concerned, that the perihelion 

 and aphelion of Jupiter corresponded in a very remarkable 

 manner with the j^eriods of low death-rate occurring in the 

 years 1839, 1845, 1851, 1856, 1862, 1868, and 1874, and he 

 accordingly, from his observation, predicted for England in 

 the year 1880 a lower death-rate than during any former 

 period in the history of that country. 



Although this prediction was not verified exactly as regards 

 1880 it is somewhat interesting to note that in the two follow- 

 ing years, 1881 and 1882, the death-rate was actually lower 

 than in any former period in which record has been preserved. 



There is, however, a serious objection to Mr. Jenkins* 

 conclusions, inasmuch as he has based them on the fluctua- 

 tions of the English death-rate only, and a comparison which 

 I have made of the mean death-rate of thirteen of the princi- 

 pal States of Europe during the last 22 years does not confirm 

 his conclusions. 



