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Knowledge required for predictions as to future composition of the stock 
and consequent yield. 
The principal and most directly practical object in connection with these investiga- 
tions is that of furnishing the fishermen and others immediately interested with reliable 
information as to the present condition of the stock and probable alterations in the same, 
in other words, of obtaining material on which to base predictions as to the expected 
course of fluctuations in the stock. In this regard, there is but little reason to believe 
that continued investigations as to the eauses of the fluctuations in the numerical 
value of year classes will be of any great immediate practical significance. I am 
perfectly aware of the impossibility of making definite statements as to the value 
of results not yet attained; the facts as at present known should, however, 
suffice to indicate the improbability of obtaining any adequate basis for such 
predictions from investigations as to the causes of the fluctuations. Even if it were 
possible, for instance, to assert, with scientific accuracy, that the nourishment of the 
youngest larvae, or the passive movement of the young fry, should be regarded as the 
determining factor for subsequent wealth or poverty of a year class, it is hardly likely 
that such knowledge would suffice for annual predictions as to the future size of the 
stock. It would in any case then be necessary to know far more of various other con- 
ditions than is at present the case. 
The first and principal object of the Norwegian fishery investigations was to deter- 
mine the extent of fluctuations in the stock, if such existed, and in that case, to discover 
a means of ascertaining and predicting the same. The investigations have therefore 
purposely refrained from any consideration of the causes of the fluctuations in question, 
the paucity of available means and staff necessitating concentration upon definite objects. 
These may now, however, in my opinion, be said to have been achieved, in any case 
in principle. A method has been arrived at, by means of which the stock of herring 
and cod in Norwegian waters may be faithfully depicted, and the stock has been found to 
develope, from year to year, as was expected from the conditions prevalent in earlier years. 
We have thus for some time been in a position to make predictions of the nature desired. The 
previous chapters contain such proof as I am able to advance in support of this asser- 
tion; the reader may then form an opinion as to their value. It will be sufficiently evident 
from the foregoing, that the method in question can only be of value if properly used, 
i. e. by the annual collection of the requisite amount of material, due treatment of same, 
and publication of results in such a manner as to enable the general public interested 
to compare the results of the scientific investigations with those of their own observa- 
tions, and draw their own conclusions. Jn other words, an organisation is needed, which 
shall undertake the regular duty, not of issuing predictions as to the course of the fishery, 
but of furnishing such information as may facilitate the conclusions in each separate in- 
stance. A final solution of the problem of fluctuations in the fishery by any permanently 
valid formula must be regarded as an impossibility, and all assertions as to the dis- 
covery of such a solution may safely be relegated to the sphere of pure imagination. 
Manner of employing the method. 
Before finally proposmg the formation of an organisation for the employment of 
the method referred to, it would be natural to point out, as clearly as possible, the preli- 
