Nipher — Predetermination of Speed of Trotting Horse. 73 

 His performance is represented by the equation 



-0.618< 



s = 137 + 7.94e 

 A comparison of observed and computed values follows : — 



JUDGE FULLERTON. STANDARD TRACK RECORDS. 



It is evident that a slight change in the values of the con- 

 stants, would in some cases make the agreement between 

 observed and computed values somewhat closer. They are, 

 however, very satisfactory, when we consider that the owners 

 and drivers of these horses were not primarily seeking to 

 secure accurate data for this discussion. It is evident also 

 that the trainer's record would afford much more satisfactory 

 material for a discussion of the subject, than can be realized 

 in the track records. A record of three or four years might 

 be expected to give a very fair idea of the future record of a 

 horse . 



In the original paper the date when any given speed orig- 

 inated, was obtained from the data of Brewer's table, by a 

 discussion of the subsequent increase in the number of horses 

 capable of that speed. For example in 1859 there was one 

 horse who could trot a mile in 2 : 23 or better. In the next 

 year there were two. Ten years later there were sixteen, and 

 in 1882 there were 275. When these numbers were platted 

 on a time axis, a logarithmic curve resulted. When the 

 logarithm of the number of horses was similarly platted, a 

 straight line was obtained. This straight line intersected the 

 time axis at the date 1857, instead of 1859. This date for 

 the origin of the speed 2 : 23 was considered much more 

 weighty, than the date when some trotting match revealed 



