Nipher — Predetermination of Speed of Trotting Horse. 75 



The differences between observed and computed values are 

 certainly inside of the errors of observation. Only the three 

 observations above given are known to me, but they are so 

 far apart in time that they certainly give a fairly good deter- 

 mination. According to this equation, the limiting speed of 

 the running horse on a standard track is 91.5 seconds to the 

 mile (1 :31.5). The speed of 1:32.5 will be reached when 

 ^:=134. This date is therefore ninety-six years from the 

 present time. At this date, or in A. D. 1999, the running 

 horse will be within one second of his final speed. The 

 change in the time of running a mile during the next century 

 will therefore be about six seconds. This result is somethinof 

 of a surprise. A previous knowledge of it would have caused 

 me to somewhat modify certain passages in the present paper. 



From the previous equations it will be seen that at the 

 present time, the annual change in the time required to make 

 one mile on a standard track, is for the running horse 0.12 

 sec, and for the trotting horse 0.29 sec. 



Issued July 9,1903. 



