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  ALASKA 
  FISHERIES 
  AND 
  FUR 
  INDUSTRIES, 
  1913. 
  

  

  nery 
  ships 
  arrived 
  in 
  Bering 
  Sea 
  the 
  fore 
  part 
  of 
  May 
  no 
  ice 
  was 
  

   encountered, 
  while 
  the 
  earUest 
  comers 
  found 
  the 
  rivers 
  open 
  and 
  the 
  

   ground 
  almost 
  entirely 
  free 
  from 
  snow 
  and 
  ice. 
  Ordinarily 
  most 
  

   vexatious 
  delays 
  occur 
  because 
  of 
  the 
  heavy 
  ice 
  floes. 
  

  

  Thus 
  western 
  Alaska 
  liad 
  tlie 
  best 
  season 
  in 
  its 
  history 
  for 
  red 
  

   salmon. 
  This 
  was 
  the 
  occasion 
  of 
  surprise 
  in 
  some 
  directions, 
  but 
  

   careful 
  study 
  of 
  the 
  situation 
  might 
  have 
  yielded 
  a 
  correct 
  forecast 
  

   as 
  to 
  expectations 
  for 
  the 
  season. 
  

  

  True 
  it 
  is 
  that 
  predicting 
  salmon 
  runs 
  is 
  fraught 
  with 
  many 
  hazards, 
  

   but 
  u§ing 
  certain 
  hypotheses 
  as 
  to 
  cycles 
  of 
  return, 
  and 
  taking 
  into 
  

   account 
  additional 
  knowledge 
  recently 
  acquired 
  tlirough 
  scale 
  study 
  

   as 
  to 
  the 
  age 
  of 
  salmon, 
  a 
  forecast 
  of 
  the 
  Bristol 
  Bay 
  runs 
  may 
  be 
  

   made 
  with 
  what 
  would 
  seem 
  to 
  be 
  reasonable 
  accuracy. 
  For 
  the 
  

   purposes 
  of 
  these 
  deductions, 
  it 
  must 
  first 
  be 
  accepted 
  that 
  in 
  Bering 
  

   Sea 
  red 
  sahnon 
  return 
  in 
  the 
  fourth 
  and 
  fifth 
  years. 
  Evidence 
  of 
  this 
  

   is 
  had 
  in 
  catches 
  of 
  recent 
  years; 
  1908 
  was 
  a 
  big 
  year, 
  and 
  1909 
  was 
  

   also; 
  1912 
  was 
  a 
  big 
  year, 
  while 
  1913 
  was 
  still 
  larger. 
  On 
  this 
  basis 
  

   the 
  four-year 
  fish 
  from 
  1912 
  will 
  return 
  in 
  1916, 
  and 
  the 
  five-year 
  fish 
  

   in 
  1917; 
  the 
  four-year 
  fish 
  from 
  1913 
  will 
  return 
  in 
  1917, 
  and 
  the 
  five- 
  

   year 
  fish 
  in 
  1918. 
  Thus, 
  of 
  the 
  years 
  1916, 
  1917, 
  and 
  1918 
  the 
  return 
  

   in 
  1917 
  ought 
  to 
  be 
  the 
  largest, 
  as 
  it 
  will 
  have 
  the 
  benefit 
  of 
  both 
  the 
  

   five-year 
  fish 
  from 
  1912 
  and 
  the 
  four-year 
  fish 
  from 
  1913. 
  However, 
  

   1916 
  should 
  be 
  a 
  very 
  good 
  season 
  with 
  the 
  return 
  of 
  the 
  four-year 
  

   fish 
  from 
  1912, 
  while 
  the 
  1918 
  season 
  should 
  also 
  be 
  good, 
  having 
  the 
  

   benefit 
  of 
  the 
  five-year 
  fish 
  from 
  1913. 
  Tabulating 
  this 
  we 
  have; 
  

  

  The 
  approximate 
  catch 
  of 
  red 
  salmon 
  in 
  the 
  Bristol 
  Bay 
  region 
  

   during 
  the 
  past 
  10 
  years 
  has 
  been 
  as 
  follows: 
  

  

  Number. 
  

  

  1904 
  12, 
  000, 
  000 
  

  

  1905 
  14, 
  100, 
  000 
  

  

  1906 
  11, 
  000, 
  000 
  

  

  1907 
  10, 
  200, 
  000 
  

  

  1908 
  17, 
  000, 
  000 
  

  

  Number. 
  

  

  1909 
  15,600,000 
  

  

  1910 
  11, 
  GOO, 
  000 
  

  

  1911 
  9, 
  000, 
  000 
  

  

  1912 
  19, 
  900, 
  000 
  

  

  1913 
  21, 
  500, 
  000 
  

  

  It 
  wiU 
  be 
  observed 
  from 
  the 
  foregoing 
  that 
  there 
  are 
  two 
  quite 
  

   good 
  years 
  followed 
  by 
  a 
  like 
  period 
  of 
  lean 
  production. 
  Thus, 
  1904 
  

   and 
  1905 
  were 
  good; 
  1906 
  and 
  1907, 
  light; 
  1908 
  and 
  1909, 
  good; 
  

   1910 
  and 
  1911, 
  light; 
  and 
  1912 
  and 
  1913, 
  good. 
  Carrying 
  this 
  fur- 
  

   ther, 
  we 
  may 
  reasonably 
  expect 
  1914 
  and 
  1915 
  to 
  be 
  lean 
  — 
  1915 
  being 
  

   the 
  lighter 
  of 
  the 
  two 
  — 
  and 
  1916 
  and 
  1917 
  to 
  be 
  good 
  seasons. 
  

  

  