Johnston] 



NAVAHO POPULATION 79 



repeated Keams' figures, but added the specification that the children 

 reported were "under 16." This quantification merely reflects the 

 natural desire of the reporting official to lend some appearance of pre- 

 cision to the figures reported. 



Another example of the arbitrary adjustments made with the figures 

 that were reported at this time is evident in the reports of 1875 and 

 1877. In 1875, the Navaho population was reported as 5,802 males 

 and 5,966 females, for a total of 11,768. The corresponding figures 

 reported in 1877 are 5,852 males and 6,016 females, for a total of 

 11,868 (Bureau of Indian Affairs, 1875, p. 114; 1877, p. 298). It is 

 evident that the reporting agent added, with perfect impartiality, the 

 number 50 to the totals reported for each sex in 1875, giving a total 

 increase of precisely 100 persons during the 2-year interval. 



The reports of 1878 to 1880 are repetitions, with minor adjustments, 

 of the figures given in 1877; the totals for these 3 years are 11,850, 

 11,850, and 12,000, respectively.^* However, the reporting agent in 

 1881 apparently decided that the figures quoted above were far too 

 low. Accordingly, he arbitrarily increased the figure given for 1880 

 by one-third, reporting a total Navaho population of 16,000. This 

 figure was again reported in 1882. But in 1883, a new agent came 

 into the picture, and he promptly added another 1,000 to the figure 

 inherited from his predecessor, reporting a total population of 17,000 

 in 1883, and a more modest increase to 17,200 in 1884.^^ 



The report of 1884 is noteworthy for its inclusion of the first esti- 

 mates of Navaho vital rates. In this report, 600 births and 400 deaths 

 were reported as having occurred among the Navaho during the previ- 

 ous year. The difference between these numbers accounts for the in- 

 crease of 200 reported over the report of 1883. 



The impact of these sudden and arbitrary modifications in the 

 reported Navaho population figures can readily be seen by means of 

 the following simple computations : Dividing the reported 1884 popu- 

 lation of 17,200 by that reported in 1877 (11,868) produces an increase 

 of 45 percent. The average annual rate of mcrease implied by these 

 figures is about 5.4 percent. By contrast, if we divide the reported 

 births and deaths in 1883 by the population given in that year, we 

 obtain a crude birth rate of about 35 and a crude death rate of about 

 23, giving a crude rate of natural increase of about 1.2 percent per 

 year.^^ Thus, the rate of increase implied in the totals given in this 



31 Irvine, 1878, 1879, and 1880. Agent Irvine merely repeated the last figure given by 

 the previous agent. 



35 Bureau of Indian Affairs, 1881 ; 1882; 1883; and 1884. The figures in each case are 

 taken from the "Table of Statistics Relating to Indian Population and Education." The 

 Navaho agent in 1881 was G. Eastman. He was followed by the widely respected D. M. 

 Rlordan, who served until 1885. 



3« It must be understood that the accuracy of these figures cannot be authenticated. The 

 sole purpose of these computations is to illustrate the magnitude of the discrepancies to 

 be found among the oflScial population reports of this period. 



