82 BUREAU OF AMERICAN ETHNOLOGY [Bull. 197 



produces a median age for the male children of 12.3 years, as con- 

 trasted with a median age for all female children of 15.5 years.^^ 



In smnmary, it would be difficult to find a document that is less use- 

 ful or more misleading for purposes of demographic analysis than the 



1885 roll of the Navajo Reservation population. With its deficient 

 coverage, artificial classification, and apparent errors in the recording 

 of names, relationships, and ages, the 1885 roll must remain an out- 

 standing example of the fictitious results to be obtained when the 

 members of a given culture are enumerated according to procedures 

 appropriate to a different culture. 



The figures given in the annual reports for the years immediately 

 following the preparation of the 1885 roll give rise to additional 

 problems of interpretation. The report for 188G gave the total popu- 

 lation of the Navaho "as numerically enrolled" as 17,358. This was 

 said to represent an increase of 164 "since the last census." These 

 statements are inconsistent with the information concerning the 1885 

 roll. The estimated total population in 1885 would, according to the 



1886 report, have come to 17,194 rather than the reported estimate of 

 21,003.^^ There are a number of possible explanations for this dis- 

 crepancy, but all of them are highly conjectural. It is possible that 

 the agent reporting in 1886 regarded the estimate of 8,000 off-reserva- 

 tion Navahos as too high. In any event, the figure of 17,358, rather 

 than the 1885 figure of 21,003, became the base figure for the popula- 

 tion reports of the several years following. It should be noted that 

 this lower figure also corresponds closely to the figure of 17,604 as re- 

 ported by the Bureau of the Census on the basis of its special enumera- 

 tion in 1890. 



The official reports for the years 1887 to 1889 present a general 

 picture of a rapidly increasing population, but examination of the 

 data contained in these reports does not support their credibility. For 

 example, the 1886 report does not permit computation of exact sex 

 ratios, because the age groupings given indicate a serious deficiency 

 in the number of males, with 3,322 males over 18 as compared with 

 6,344 females over 14 (Patterson, 1886, p. 204) . 



By contrast, the report for 1887 reverses the implied sex ratio, re- 

 porting a total male population of exactly 10,000, and a total female 



*^ In the annual report of 1885, the number of Navaho children "between the ages of 

 6 and 16" was reported as 6,404, or 30.5 percent of the total reported Navaho population 

 of that year. By contrast, the 5-percent sample taken from the 1885 roll included 273 

 persons aged 7 through 15, which comes to 39 percent of the total sample. This higher 

 proportion is higher than that reported for any subsequent Navaho population, and suggests 

 that the procedure whereby ages were "assigned" to the Navahos on this roll tended to 

 underestimate the intervals between children. Starting with a fairly accurate age for the 

 eldest child, such a procedure would produce an upward bias in age estimation for 

 succeeding children. 



^ Patterson, 1886. The age groupings shown in this report are overlapping, but the 

 total given seems to take this into account. 



