Johnston] NAVAHO POPULATION 83 



population of 7,838 (Patterson, 1887). Since both reports were 

 submitted by the same agent, and neither report contains any refer- 

 ence to the apparent variation in these sex ratios, it must be concluded 

 that only the totals represent serious estimates, and the remaining de- 

 tails are largely fictitious. 



In 1888, the same agent (Patterson, 1888) reported a total of 6,520 

 males over 18, and 4,876 females over 14, with a total Navaho popula- 

 tion at all ages of 18,000. In 1889, C. E. Vandever replaced S. S. Pat- 

 terson as Navaho agent, and although his first report (Vandever, 

 1889) repeated the figure of 18,000 as given by his predecessor. Agent 

 Vandever apparently came to the conclusion that the previous report 

 was a serious overestimate of the actual Navaho population. In his 

 report for 1890, Agent Vandever (1890, p. 161) reported as follows: 



I estimate the total population at from 14,000 to 15,000, the sexes about equal, 

 and the families averaging between 4 and 5. The births for the year I estimate 

 at 410, and the deaths at 900. . . . [due to] a throat disease bearing a close 

 resemblance to diphtheria. . . . 



Although this report demonstrated a certain amount of critical 

 judgment, the results of the census taken in that year would seem to 

 indicate that Patterson's estimates were closer to reality than Van- 

 dever's.^° However, the results of this first special enumeration were 

 not generally regarded as reliable insofar as the coverage of the 

 Navaho population was concerned. Thus the apparent failure of the 

 agents reporting after 1890 to utilize the 1890 census figure as a base 

 is not necessarily due to carelessness or ignorance. By 1894 (p. 499), 

 the estimated total Navaho population had been revised upward to 

 a figure of 20,500. This figure was merely repeated in the reports for 

 the years 1895 to 1898. In 1899 (p. 562) this figure was rounded to 

 an even 20,000, which figure was again repeated, with minor varia- 

 tions, until 1910.-^1 



In summary, the fourth period in the development of the Navaho 

 population records of the Bureau of Indian Affairs does not reveal 

 any fundamental improvement despite the preparation of the 1885 

 roll and the occurrence of the first special enumeration by the Bureau 

 of the Census in 1890. The only significant change to be noted in this 

 period is that the figures reported tended more frequently to be labeled 

 as estimates rather than being presented as actual counts. 



■^o It is noteworthy that the Bureau of the Census, in its first enumeration of the Indian 

 population, obtained a total of 17,204 Navahos in this same year. This enumeration is 

 discussed in greater detail on pp. 103 flf. 



« The basic estimate of 20,000 Navahos was actually the sum of throe estimates : 12,000 

 for the Southern, Kasteru, and Northern Agoncips, 6,000 for the Wewtern Agency, and 

 2,000 within the area of the Hopi Reservation. The minor variations in these estimates 

 reflect changes in the estimated number of Navahos residing on the Navajo Extension. 

 Their number was variously given as between 390 and 500. See, for example, Bureau of 

 Indian Affairs, 1905 ; 1906 ; 1907 ; and 190S. 



