Johnston] 



NAVAHO POPULATION 123 



this time, a number of unsolved economic problems had reached a 

 culminating point, and widespread hostility and suspicion was directed 

 toward any outsiders who might be identified with the officialdom in 

 charge of the drastic remedial measures then being employed. As a 

 result, the survey could not be carried out in a number of local areas, 

 and the accuracy of the information obtained in other areas is open 

 to some question. The difficulties which attended the survey are well 

 suimnarized in the following passage : 



An attempt was made to take a dependency schedule for each consumption 

 group in each land management unit in order to ascertain population, individual 

 and group ownership of livestock, land operated and income data. Because 

 of opposition in certain local areas the survey is not actually one hundred 

 percent complete. . . . For these [specified] areas of noncoverage popu- 

 lation has been recorded on the basis of the best available estimates of the Human 

 Dependency Survey field workers, land management unit supervisors, local 

 traders, and friendly local Navahos. Other data for these areas were obtained 

 by interpolation on the basis of the averages reported for neighboring areas 

 where the data were obtained. [Soil Conservation Service, 1938, p. 1.] 



The figures shown in table 26 give some indication of the limitations 

 of the Human Dependency Survey as a source of information on the 

 total population of the Navaho at this time. The statistics given 

 for 1936 are based upon the actual results of the survey. Those for 

 191:0 were derived from preliminary unpublished tabulations pre- 

 pared by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Indian Affairs 

 from the results of the 1940 enumeration in the area. Thus, a com- 

 parison of the two sets of figures for each land management unit 

 (or district) serves to indicate the discrepancies between these two 

 sources of data. 



Perhaps the most significant discrepancy to be noted is that between 

 the reported total reservation population in 1936 (based on the Human 

 Dependency Survey) and that in 1940 (based upon the 1940 census). 

 The latter figure is 24.5 percent greater than the former. Since there 

 is little reason to suspect a significant overcount of the Navaho popu- 

 lation during the 1940 census, it is apparent that the totals obtained 

 from the Human Dependency Survey are deficient. 



The extent of this deficiency can be approximated with somewhat 

 greater accuracy by means of the following calculation. The survey 

 was carried out during a period of nearly 2i/^ years, from early in 1936 

 to the late summer of 1938. The approximate midpoint of this interval 

 is in April 1937. Thus the statistics collected in this survey pertain, 

 on the average, to a date approximately 3 years prior to the date of 

 the 1940 emmieration. If we assume an average rate of natural in- 

 crease of 2 percent per year during this period, we can obtain an esti- 

 mate of the April 1937 Navaho population by extrapolation from the 

 1940 census figure. The hypothetical estimate thus derived is 37,256, 



780-568—66 9 



